This topic has been kicked about here at RedState and at other places. Anecdotally, I’ve alway pegged Donald Trump’s core support as the modern day equivalent of the blue-collar “Reagan Democrats” that reacted to the failure and indecision of Jimmy Carter by crossing party lines and voting GOP for the first time. I have never been convinced that Trump supporters are white supremacists or stupid. The see the rot, they are fed up, and they are willing to burn it all down because they have lost faith in the ability of the government to function with their interests in mind.
Now a new study indicates that there is some truth in my belief (whew).
The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.
Nearly 20 percent of likely Democratic voters say they’d cross sides and vote for Trump, while a small number, or 14 percent, of Republicans claim they’d vote for Clinton. When those groups were further broken down, a far higher percentage of the crossover Democrats contend they are “100 percent sure” of switching than the Republicans.
This is easy to imagine. The Democrat party is an elitist party and a dependency party. It has no place in its ranks for people who actually like America and work for a living and want their kids (if they are an Ivy League legacy) to be better off than they are. It also explains the persistent strength of a man who is manifestly not a conservative.
Of course, this is both good news and bad news for Trump. If he wins the nomination, those Democrats would give Trump the buffer he needs to replace GOP voters who swear (and haven’t we all in one election or another) that they won’t support Trump. On the other hand, those polls, in places like New Hampshire, which require you to vote in the primary of the party with which you are registered could be overstating Trump’s actual support by a significant amount. If that health lead is made up of disaffected Democrats, then they can’t vote for him.