The time Ted Cruz has spent in Iowa, the solid organization he has built there and the key endorsements of Iowa Representative Steve King, radio talker Steve Deace, and evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats are paying huge dividends. The latest Des Moines Register poll shows Cruz leading the field with 31%, a gain of 21 points since the October poll. Trump was second with 21% (plus 2 since October), followed by Carson with 13% (minus an eye-popping 15 points) and Rubio unchanged at 10%.The field is rounded out by Jeb Bush, 6% (+1), Chris Christie, 3% (+2). Mike Huckabee, 3 (unchanged), and [mc_name name=’Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’P000603′ ], 3% (-2).

This, according to the Des Moines Register, is the largest leap by any candidate in one polling cycle in Iowa political history.

When you look at first and second choices combined, Cruz’s lead becomes larger.

That’s the good news.

The bad news is that Iowa’s record of picking winners in contested primaries is dismal.