New Poll: Trump up 9 and Clinton down 21

smoking crater

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll doesn’t tell us much new but it serves as a useful data point that reinforces what every other poll has told us.

Top Line Results:

abc wapo poll 1

abc wapo poll 2

The broad picture painted on the Republican side is that Trump and Carson are locked in a struggle for first place. Bush, never a strong contender is in a statistical tie with the rest of the field. The worst news is reserved for Scott Walker, who you will notice is not even on the chart. Earlier this same poll showed him with 13% of the vote, now he has 2%. Of the “pack” candidates, [mc_name name=’Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)’ chamber=’senate’ mcid=’C001098′ ] is the only one who seems to have arrested his slide and started to inch upwards. The end of this month will give us a better picture for Ben Carson’s prospects. His previous fundraising was fairly anemic and at some point he will need to have money to compete.

The Democrat side is also interesting. Despite what James Carville and David Brock would have you believe, the public thinks the email scandal is serious and it is costing her. Her downward rocketing poll numbers is due to one central factor. Women don’t like her and and don’t trust her. Now her support among women is close to what it is among men. If your unique selling proposition is “I’ve got a vagina” this is a huge issue. The fact that Democrats opposing Hillary now outnumber Democrats supporting her is an issue that is only going to get worse.

As has been discussed before, this poll finds that the dominant feeling on both sides of the aisle is that the political establishment has ill-served the voters:

Overall, the survey underscored the degree of dissatisfaction toward government and politics that is shaping the campaign. More than 7 in 10 Americans say people in politics cannot be trusted. More than 6 in 10 say the political system is dysfunctional. Sizable majorities of Democrats, Republicans and independents agree with those assessments.

What is interesting is that the Democrats have responded to the challenge of dishonesty and dysfunction by considering three career politicians whose actions have brought us to where we are today.