February Jobs Report Misses Expectations, but There May Be More to the Story

AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File

On Friday morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its February Jobs Report, and the numbers fell short of expectations. Rather than an estimated gain of 50,000, nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000.

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The U.S. economy lost jobs in February, a month marred by severe winter weather and a strike at a major health-care provider, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 for the month, compared with the estimate for 50,000 and below the downwardly revised January total of 126,000. February marked the third time in the past five months that payrolls declined, following a sharp revision showing a drop of 17,000 in December.

At the same time, the unemployment rate edged higher to 4.4% as jobs declined across key areas. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time positions for economic reasons moved lower, to 7.9% or 0.2 percentage point below the January level.


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Now, wages rose more than expected: 

Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago, both 0.1 percentage point above forecast.

And there's some added context that's worth noting:

Rough headline for jobs report.

92k jobs lost in February, big miss from +59k expected. December & January revised to 69k lower than previously reported.

BUT -

Data shows foreign born workers have lost 519,000 jobs over the last year, while native born workers have gained 128k jobs.

Additionally, federal government employment decreased by 10K in February, and is down by 330K, or 11%, since reaching a peak in October 2024.

What are some of the factors in play here? 

"There are a handful of things that may have distorted February's data: winter storms may explain the weakness in construction, for example, and nursing strikes might have dragged on healthcare," said Elyse Ausenbaugh, head of investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Wealth Management. 

"Still, the pace of job gains over the last few months is still dramatically slower than it was in 2024 and much of 2025 – this is going to make it harder for the Fed to sell the labor market stabilization narrative that's been used to justify patience on further rate cuts. Add higher oil prices given conflict in the Middle East and renewed tariff uncertainty to the convoluted jobs market story, and you have a tricky, stagflationary mix of risks in the backdrop for the Fed," Ausenbaugh added.

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National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett responded to the report, characterizing the number as an outlier.  

Is he right on that? We'll know in a month (or two). 

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