All the Polls Are Coming for Biden: Latest CBS Survey Has Him Down by 4 Points to Trump

As I typically do when writing about polls, I'll begin this piece with a nod to the obvious: Polls aren't gospel. They're little snapshots of a moment in time, and they're only as "accurate" as their methodology permits. Still, when you avoid cherry-picking and, instead, look at them as a whole, they can represent trends and that intangible thing — momentum — which so often seems to play a role in the outcomes of electoral contests (and, of course, sporting events).

The Latest New York Times/Siena Poll Is Devastating for Joe Biden

And when polls from outlets/sources that tend to favor one "side" come out with results unfavorable to said side, it's worth taking note — sort of like the idea of "admissions against interest" in the law: When a person says something that would typically be viewed as against their own interest, it tends to have more credibility than a self-serving statement would.

So, when CBS News/YouGov are out with a poll that shows the incumbent Democrat president down by four points to his most likely Republican rival in November, it bears noting — particularly when that rival carries a boatload of baggage.

Sunday morning, CBS published its latest presidential poll results showing just that:

*New*
CBS News Poll: Voters Remember Trump's Economy As Good – Boosting Trump to a National Lead Over Biden Today

Biden also trails on being seen as having vision for countryhttps://t.co/RGQY1iwyRV pic.twitter.com/wj5J4nSAqh
— CBS News Poll (@CBSNewsPoll) March 3, 2024

And it isn't just the overall choice for president that translates to "not good" for Biden. Other results from the poll:

On rating the respective presidencies of Joe Biden and Donald Trump — looking back, 46 percent rated Trump's as "excellent" or "good," while 53 percent rated it as "fair" or "poor" — by themselves, not great numbers. But compare them to Biden's — 33 percent "excellent" or "good," 67 percent "fair" or "poor." That's a 13-14 point differential — one not favorable to Biden.
On whether their policies would make prices increase or decrease — 55 percent feel Biden's would cause them to go up, while only 34 percent believe Trump's will. Even more stark a contrast, only 17 percent believe Biden's would cause prices to go down, while 44 percent believe Trump's would.
On whether those surveyed feel the candidate "fights for people like you" — 42 percent believe that of Biden, while 48 percent believe it of Trump.
On which prospective leader has a vision for the country — 50 percent believe Biden does. Which sounds decent-ish. But Trump gets the nod on that front, too, with 63 percent believing he's got said vision.
Another stark contrast is offered on (not surprisingly) immigration — 50 percent of those surveyed believe the number of those attempting to cross the border would increase under Biden's policies, whereas only nine percent believe that as to Trump. Conversely, 22 percent believe that number would go down under Biden, while 72 percent believe it would decrease under Trump.

There are other interesting nuggets in the poll, which surveyed 2,159 U.S. adult residents between February 28 and March 1, 2024, and includes a 2.8-point margin of error. Not surprisingly, more of those surveyed gave the advantage to Trump over Biden in terms of having the requisite health to serve (43 percent to 26 percent as to mental and cognitive health, 45 percent to 17 percent as to physical health).

Lastly, while most of those surveyed found the prospect of a 2020 rematch between Biden and Trump negative and/or depressing, here's something of particular interest, I thought: When asked what the 2024 presidential election is about, 55 percent of Trump voters opted for "hope for what might happen," compared to only 35 percent of Biden voters. Most Biden voters, instead, characterized the election as about "fear of what might happen" — 65 percent — while 45 percent of Trump voters did.

So will fear trump hope in November?