Missouri COVID Update - Good News/Bad News

(AP Photo/Jeff Roberson, File)

It’s been about three weeks since I checked in with Missouri’s COVID stats. This is intended to simply give an update on how the Show Me State is faring for those who have been following along. Again, Missouri has, throughout the pandemic, managed to remain largely middle-of-the-road vis-a-vis the other 49 states and District of Columbia. However, we’ve moved up in the ranks in terms of our overall caseload.

Here’s where Missouri sits now, per Worldometers:  Over the past three weeks, Missouri has jumped up another four spots in reported cases (from 25th to 21st), with a total number of reported cases as of this morning (August 28th) of 80,789. (That number sat at 58,306 three weeks ago. Up until July, Missouri had been hovering around the 29th spot.) Missouri now has 13,163 cases per million persons (up from 9,500), which places it in 33rd place (up five spots from three weeks ago.)

There have now been 1,610 deaths in Missouri attributed to COVID-19. That’s up from 1,387 on August 9th (so by 223) but Missouri has moved down one spot, to 26th place in terms of total (reported) COVID-related deaths.  In terms of deaths per million, Missouri now sits at 262, which leaves it in 30th place.

Regarding testing, Missouri has now reported 1,010, 604 tests administered, which moves it up one spot to 23rd place in total tests. As for tests per million persons, Missouri has administered 164,662, which places it 45th. (Down one spot.)

Hospitalizations have remained fairly steady through the month of August. The last reported data per the Missouri Department of Health and Senior Services dashboard is 902 as of August 24th.

Again, then, the primary notable change relative to the other states is in reported cases and cases per million persons. Again, testing has not kept pace, as demonstrated in the chart below, though, the relative merits of that depend on who you talk to.

Missouri

Overall, the blue line (daily % increase in cases) has outpaced the gray line (daily % increase in tests). Thankfully, both have generally remained above the brown/orange line (daily % increase in deaths). Further, though there hasn’t been a notable decline, we’re also not seeing a sharp rise. Missouri’s rough case fatality rate (reported deaths divided by reported cases) at this time sits at 2.0%. That’s down from 2.4% on August 9th and, in comparison, the US rough mortality rate is at 3.1% and New York’s still dwarfs these at 7.1%.

Missouri’s positivity rate (the yellow line — reported cases versus total tests) has been steadily increasing. It currently sits at 8.0%. (It was 7.2% three weeks ago.) That is now above the positivity rate for the U.S. as a whole — presently 7.6% — though remains well below that seen currently in Arizona, Florida, and Texas (13.9%, 13.5%, and 12.0% respectively).

On balance, then, Missouri has certainly seen its number of daily reported cases increase and moved up in terms of total cases relative to the other states, but again, we are not seeing the sort of spikes that Arizona, Florida, and Texas,  experienced earlier this summer. Thankfully, those states are seeing their relative numbers fall off from their earlier spikes.

So, a mix of good news and bad news — I still want to see that blue line curving back down.  I’ll keep monitoring and reporting on our progress.