In 2016, the thought of Trump winning Pennsylvania was a pipe dream. Now in 2020, it is the Democrats trying to win back the once deep-blue state. Polls have been stating Biden is up big in the former heart of Industrial America, but the Trump campaign remains confident they have an edge to win in Pennsylvania.
As I have previously covered over the last couple of days, Democrats are up big in the Keystone State in early returns, with a 43 point lead in mail ballots 66 to 23. So far, 2,383,062 votes have been cast in PA, which is just 38% of the total vote cast in 2016. While Dems have amassed what appears to be this massive lead, here comes data out of the Trump campaign that shows that, not only is Trump still in the driver’s seat but that Democrats have been wrong in their vote-by-mail strategy.
Nick Trainer on Pennsylvania: "We know right now that there are 2.6 million voters likely to show up tomorrow” for @realDonaldTrump
— Charlie Spiering (@charliespiering) November 2, 2020
2.6 million votes is a lot, and the question is, where would Donald Trump pick up that many votes in the state. In the comments section of the tweets, there are several Democrats who say it won’t happen and that it is impossible. The problem is, not only is it possible, it is likely.
Republicans still have 2.4 million votes of their 2016 numbers to cast, while Democrats, only 1.3 million. Simply put, Republicans have enough of their 2016 turn out to cover not only the 1 million vote lead Dems have put up in early voting, but also every ballot that Dems could cast tomorrow to meet their 2016 turnout. This is where the “Vote Early by Mail” campaign the Democrats waged may backfire on them. Democrats’ hopes ride squarely in drawing votes from Trump’s 2016 supporters, which, aside from the isolated case, isn’t happening. Trump not only looks good to win the Election Day vote but likely the state outright tomorrow. Dems’ battle is a two-edged sword, attempting to draw out their voters from 2016 who haven’t voted yet and suppressing the much larger vote for Trump voters who are pumped up about voting. Enthusiasm weighs heavily here as Democrats trail in candidate enthusiasm by double digits. Dems only have 65% of their total registration left to turn out. Republicans? 85%.
In an increased turnout model, Trump still wins unless Dems can show their means of converting votes. Simply announcing “former Trump supporters,” who don’t fall into the ranks of those fired by Trump, doesn’t mean they exist. That isn’t to say that they don’t exist. They just don’t exist in a number high enough to overcome the votes from minority voters, former neverTrumpers, Libertarian Johnson voters, and others that Trump has succeeded in converting this election cycle. At this point, Dems could win by drawing 75% of independents, but that doesn’t look likely either.