Minnesota went to Clinton in 2016 by a margin of just 44,000 votes, among the smallest margins of victory in the country. That tiny margin, coupled with the economic boom created prior to the Coronavirus outbreak, placed Minnesota within striking distance for team Trump. Polling for the state has Biden up 6 for the Real Clear Politics average, and 270towin had Minnesota leaning blue. To compare to 2016, the last two polls had Clinton with a 10 and 8 point lead respectively, in a race that had Clinton win by 1.5 points.
Now, the latest poll from Trafalgar Group, among the most accurate of polling firms in 2016 and 2018, shows that Biden leads Trump by just 3.2 points, well within the massive swing that occurred between polling and final result in 2016. Particularly of note, is that Kanye West, also running this year, is drawing 3.3% of the vote in Minnesota.
Our new @trafalgar_group #2020Election #BattlegroundState #MNpoll conducted Oct 24-25 shows Biden with a lead:
1.1% Und. See Report: https://t.co/2Qz2zSqVp5 pic.twitter.com/O4j14MOBVg
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 28, 2020
You can be sure that Yeezus’ 3.3% is being drawn from what would be Biden’s share, more so than it would be drawn from Trump. In other words, the majority of Kanye’s voters would be voting for Biden if Kanye wasn’t on the ballot. This means that if Biden and Trump end up drawing the same voters that ended with a 1.5% margin of victory for Dems in 2016, Kanye could spoil the win for Democrats in the state! Yeezus could end up saving a Trump Presidency!