Hot Takes: Minnesota's Registration Numbers Might Douse Any Hope For A Trump Victory In The State

Minnesota has been a deep blue state ever since 1976.   Even during Reagan’s landslide victories in both 1980 and 1984, Minnesota stayed blue.  That entire time, in 11 elections, Minnesota has only voted with the winning party 5 times, in 1976,1992,1996, 2008, and 2012.  Now, as we approach the 2020 election, Real Clear Politics still has Minnesota listed as a swing state.

Unfortunately, the voter registration data doesn’t speak to the potential of a Trump victory in the Northern state this cycle.  Since 2016, Minnesota has added 122,822 voters, a 3.7% increase for the state over their 2016 numbers.  For reference, neighboring Wisconsin lost 145,878 voters over the same period of time.  For Minnesota to grow their number of voters either shows the previously disengaged, engaging, or that it shows that people are moving into the state. (or Both).  Of that 122,822 gain in voters, counties that Clinton won in 2016, account for 71,236 of the increase (a 4.12% increase in those counties) while counties that Trump won increased by 3.35% or 51,586 voters.  Not only did Democrat counties add more voters in sheer numbers, but they also had a larger percentage increase over their 2016 numbers. If we look back further to 2012, what does it say if we analyze based upon Romney and Obama counties?

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