Arizona Voter Registration Numbers Provide a Cautionary Tale to Republicans

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

I have analyzed the voter registration numbers in Pennsylvania and Florida, showing that despite the left’s best attempts to tell us that Biden is going to win those states, the voter registration numbers tell a different story.

Yesterday, my colleague and Arizona resident, Becca Lower, asked that I take a look at her state, as some new numbers had just been posted by a local news guy.  Those numbers appeared to be exclusive to Maricopa County.

I decided to take a deeper look into statewide numbers for Arizona, and they do not paint as bright of a picture for Republicans as do the above Maricopa County numbers.

In November 2016, at which time Trump won the State of Arizona by just 3.5%, Democrats totaled 1,093,323, Independents 1,257, 529, and Republicans 1,239,614 of the state’s 3,588,466 voters. That gave Democrats 30.41%, Independents 35.04%, and Republicans 34.54% of the voters in Arizona.

In 2018, Democrats had a 5.42% increase in their ranks, compared to a 1.33% increase among Independents and a 3.89% increase among Republicans. Democrats outpaced Republican registrations that year by more than 10,509 voter registrations.  Both Democrats and Republicans showed an increase of their share of State voters, while Independents suffered a loss.

Now, as of August 2020, Democrats accounted for 1,293,074 of the voters, Independents 1,306,180 and Republicans 1,389,960.    That gives us a rough breakdown of 32.41% for Democrats, a nearly 1.5% jump in Democrat voters in the state.  Republicans have also increased their share of state voters to a plurality hold of 34.84%.  Republicans still hold a 2.43% lead over Democrats in the state, a narrowing of 1.70% from a 4.13% lead in 2016.

These numbers provide a pretty good look at by ABC/WaPo’s latest Arizona Poll has Trump leading by 1 point.  The Arizona Senate race also shows a 1 point lead to Kelly, above Republican McSally.  The only warning I will offer is the sampling shows a 25D ,38I, 31R, which is a 6 point Republican advantage poll.  While sampling should actually give R’s an additional 3 points away from Independents, it should also have given Democrats a 7 point boost from Independents as well.  While I would like to provide that analysis, Langer Research, the firm that conducted the poll did not include the cross tabs of that data.

What’s the take-away? Arizona isn’t going to flip blue by 5 or 6 points as some of the previous polls have said.  While Democrats have narrowed the voter registration deficit, They have not done so by a margin greater than what Trump won the state in 2016.  Republicans have maintained their hold of statewide voters, and Democrats have increased theirs.  The only thing is that those gains came from Independents, which shows they likely leaned that direction before registering or switching parties,  I still call Arizona a toss-up with a slight Republican lean.