A new poll is out from PRRI, and it is a shocker, showing Hillary Clinton with a national lead of — wait for it — FIFTEEN points, 51%-36%:

With only three weeks remaining in the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton maintains a double-digit lead over Donald Trump among likely voters (51% vs. 36%, respectively).1 Support for Clinton among likely voters has increased significantly over the past few weeks. In late September, Clinton was tied with Trump among likely voters (43% vs. 43%, respectively).

Democratic voters are more likely to support Hillary Clinton than Republican voters are to support Donald Trump. Ninety-five percent of Democratic likely voters say they are supporting Clinton while roughly nine in ten (87%) Republican likely voters report they are supporting their party’s nominee. Clinton has opened up a substantial lead with independent voters, who are supporting her by a 16-point margin (46% vs. 30%, respectively). Notably, roughly one in four independent voters say they will be casting a ballot for a third-party candidate (17%) or report no candidate preference at all (7%).

Clinton continues to benefit from her overwhelming lead among female likely voters, who favor Clinton over Trump by a margin of nearly two to one (57% vs. 31%, respectively). Male likely voters are nearly evenly divided in their candidate preferences, with roughly four in ten supporting Clinton (44%) and Trump (40%). This represents a stark reversal from last week, when Trump held a considerable advantage over Clinton among male voters (48% vs. 37%, respectively).

This is the same poll that had Clinton up by 11 a week ago, and had the candidates tied 43% to 43% less than a month ago. This chart from Kyle Griffin shows the trend:

Now for the caveat: last week’s poll had Trump down by 33 points among women voters — a gap that Allahpundit said was “enormous to the point of implausibility.” That gap has lowered to 26 points — but, as Larry David might say, that’s still pret-ty, pret-ty big. Outlier-ish, one might even say. And the 15-point national lead is obviously larger than most polls have shown in recent days. But the trend is not good for Trump heading into tonight’s debate.

Not good at all.

P.S. The PRRI servers appear to be melting this morning, and the link to the poll has not been working since I first read about it around 9:15 Eastern this morning. Feel free to use this Google cache link, which is how I accessed the poll.

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