Oh, man. Yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll showing Hillary up by 11 may not have been an outlier. A PRRI/The Atlantic poll also shows Trump getting his rear end handed to him, also by double digits (49-38):
With less than a month to go until Election Day, Donald Trump’s standing has plummeted with likely voters, falling from a dead heat just two weeks ago to a double-digit deficit behind Hillary Clinton, according to a PRRI/The Atlantic poll released Tuesday.
Clinton holds a 49-38 lead over the Republican. Two weeks ago, a previous PRRI/Atlantic poll found Trump and Clinton tied at 43-43. Following the first presidential debate in Hempstead, New York, the Democrat broke out to a 47-41 lead. She has now built on that lead.
Note that Hillary has built this huge lead from a tie two weeks ago.
The poll was conducted last Wednesday through Sunday — meaning that many of the respondents had not yet heard about the “grab them by the p***y” video or seen the debate. That . . . is probably not very good for Mr. The Donald.
After the NBC/WSJ poll came out yesterday showing an 11-point Trump lead for Hillary, a friend of mine I respect wrote me to say:
Take a look at the Sample of the LV [likely voters] in the NBC/WSJ poll.
The balance of Dem to Reps is pretty reflective of final result in just looking at Sample %s. Given the affective attachment Dems have to Dems, it’s not surprising that a sample that has 43% Dem ID and 36% Rep ID splits 49 to 42.
It’s not a particularly good sample, which is why there is a +/- 4.3% swing.
It’s a fair point. So when former Trump toady Joe Scarborough says yesterday’s NBC/WSJ poll was “cooked” — well, that might be overstating things a bit, but there are arguably issues with the sample. Whether this new poll suffers from the same defect was not immediately apparent to me from the details available in the poll’s official announcement. Maybe some data maven can drill down further on this issue in the comments.
We’ll probably know soon enough whether these polls are outliers. Right now, it just seems like it’s one piece of bad news for Donald Trump after another.