It was such a pleasure this week to see the execrable Alexander Vindman go down to a crushing defeat in his primary race for the U.S. Senate in Florida against socialist state Rep. Angie Nixon.
Nixon won with 55.9 percent and 690,172 votes. Vindman received 44.1 percent and 543,688 votes.
While I'm never happy to have a socialist win anything, having Vindman lose after he assumed he'd win in a walk was delightful. He laughed at Nixon, thinking she was no competition, but he ended up being the joke. I have every confidence that Florida will do the right thing and vote for the Republican incumbent, Sen. Ashley Moody.
CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten agrees with me, painting Angie Nixon as a gift for Moody.
It's amazing how Florida has basically been taken off the board for the Democrats.
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 21, 2026
Yes, it's the Senate election this year... But the GOP has been winning all the major races.
The GOP now has an 11 pt edge in party registration... in a state quickly gaining population! pic.twitter.com/KUgcWeVBCV
"Ashley Moody is saying, 'Thank you, God! Thank you, God!'" Enten opined. He said that, according to Kalshi, her chances of winning had been 84 percent on Sunday; they were now seeing it as a 95 percent chance that Moody will win. And given Florida, that prediction might be low.
"Up like a rocket!" Enten said. There's a very anti-Communist feel in Florida, and they are not going to take kindly to any radical leftist.
"Turns out that nominating a self-described Democratic socialist in a state like Florida where there are a lot of, let's say, Cuban refugees is not necessarily the smartest idea. The Democratic Party and those Democratic voters essentially, probably, taking this race off the board come November."
As Enten explained, this was due to the big shifts in the electorate in Florida, which will not only benefit Moody, but other Republican candidates as well. He outlined the change in the voter registration edge, which had shifted in ten years from +3 favoring Democrats to now being +11 favoring Republicans. Florida has become considerably more Republican, which means the Republicans generally take the statewide races.
Enten also thought these factors could translate to a 2-3 seat pickup in the House seats.
Enten then set out why this was bad for Democrats in the future: "One thing you do not want to be is losing ground in a state which is gaining in population," and that the outlook for the 2030s might be that Florida has 32 electoral votes. "And it's now solidly in the Republican camp, at least for now," Enten said.
That's likely to make the Democrats very unhappy campers, and be extremely important for the Republicans in future presidential races.
Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.
Help RedState continue to report on the Democrats’ radicalism and inform voters as our nation faces a crossroads. Join RedState VIP and use promo code FIGHT to receive 60% off your membership.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member