I wrote earlier this month about how former Barack Obama advisor David Plouffe was predicting that the Democrats were going to be in big trouble going forward after the 2030 census unless they changed their ways, because of how the electoral map is changing.
As Plouffe said:
After the adjustments to the Electoral College map that look likely to come with the next census, the Democratic presidential nominee could win all states won by Kamala Harris plus the blue wall of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still fall short of the 270 electoral votes needed to win.
That's in part because of the flight from the blue states to the red states.
Winning the critical swing states was vital to winning the White House. But under the 2030 census predictions, even with those three "blue wall" states, it wouldn't be enough for Democrats. Now you can see why the Democrats are panicking over illegal aliens and redistricting - they know what's coming is going to make things even worse for them.
Now there are a couple of census apportionment assessments that tell us what that could translate to in lost seats for the Democrats.
Left-leaning California, New York, and Illinois could lose a total of eight congressional seats due to sweeping population shifts this decade, with right-tilting Texas and Florida gaining eight seats, according to an analysis by the non-partisan Redistrict Network.
The findings, which are based on 2025 Census Bureau population estimates and data from previous years, were compiled by Carnegie Mellon University redistricting expert Dr. Jonathan Cervas and released on Tuesday.
Another projection, from the Republican-aligned American Redistricting Project, indicates Texas gaining four seats and Florida gaining two.
#NEW: 2030 Apportionment Forecast based on 2025 Census Bureau Population Estimates (January 27, 2026).
— The Redistrict Network (@RedistrictNet) January 27, 2026
Forecast prepared by Dr. Jonathan Cervas (CMIST) at Carnegie Mellon University pic.twitter.com/DACPg0Nldf
🚨2030 Apportionment Forecast🚨
— The American Redistricting Project (@AmerRedistrict) January 27, 2026
+4: TX
+2: FL
+1: AZ, GA, ID, NC, UT
-4: CA
-1: IL, MN, NY, OR, PA, RI, WI
* Based on the 2025 Census Population Estimates released January 27, 2026. pic.twitter.com/ugZPVCs6zw
Republican strategist David Kochel said, "I think it’s right that there’s going to be an 8-10 electoral vote shift" from blue to red states.
"I would not want to be where the Democrats are," he emphasized. "The numbers don’t lie and the Democrats’ [electoral college] hill is getting steeper and steeper to climb."
Then, too, as we reported, we're seeing a huge drop in illegal immigration/having more deportations, so net international migration has fallen by a tremendous amount.
READ MORE: Census Bureau: Huge Decline in Illegal Immigration
So the Democrats are going to be up a creek without a paddle, even as they are taking more and more extreme positions on the issues that aren't going to appeal to the general public. They've lost a lot of the working class and minorities because of that, so they would have to figure out how to get those people back. The movement away from blue states to red states is also in part an indication of people rendering a judgment on Democrats - with their feet, running from them.
It doesn't sound like the Democrats are coming close to figuring it out yet, still making everything about their hatred for President Donald Trump, rather than actually offering any positive policies. They keep trying to incite chaos and blame Trump.
But even with all that, even with the media carrying their water, it's not looking good for them with these numbers. No wonder they're freaking out.
Let's ensure that this happens, and they are sidelined for the foreseeable future.
