A new poll on how President Donald Trump would do versus Joe Biden just might make Biden pull his hair out (plugs and all) when he hears about it.
The I&I/TIPP poll was limited to people who voted in the 2020 election. Voters were asked “If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?” The choices were “Donald Trump,” “Joe Biden,” “Other,” or “Not sure.”
The results of the poll show Trump leading across much of the country, if the election were held today. The poll shows that Trump beats Biden in every region except in the North East and leading in key demographics.
Trump leads in the Midwest (45.9% vs. 44.9%), the South (45.8% vs. 44.6), and the West (42.4% vs. 39.7%). Biden leads Trump in the Northeast 53.6% to 39.1%.
Trump now leads Biden among those aged 45-64 (45.8% support Trump vs. 41.8% Biden), those 65 and older (50.7% vs. 39.3%), women (44.9% vs. 41.9%), Whites (50.2% vs. 38.4%), independent voters (46.2% vs. 36.9%), suburban voters (47% vs. 39.4%) and rural voters (54.8% vs. 37.2%), and married women (52.2% vs 40.0%).
Moreover, even among those who still favored Biden in October, Trump realized some significant gains. Among Black voters, for instance, Trump moved from 18.1% support in September to 20.3% in October.
Among Hispanic voters, the fastest-growing voting bloc in the U.S., Trump gained a hefty 14.6 percentage points, from 24.2% to 38.8%. That’s more than the 33% of the Hispanic vote that Trump garnered in the 2020 election
Moderates, often identified with independents and other key swing voters, tacked on 5.8 percentage points to their overall support of Trump, from 32.4% to 38.2%.
Among married women, often viewed as a heavily influential voting group, the shift toward Trump was particularly notable: In September, this group favored Biden (42.4%) to Trump (42.1%). In October, they gave Trump 53.2% of their vote, versus just 40% for Biden, a huge swing.
Clearly, there are a lot of Democrats or other people who voted for Biden who are experiencing buyer’s remorse.
Now, even though Trump is beating him in most regions, Biden still holds a slim lead in total numbers, 45% to 44%, 6% choosing “other” and 5% saying “not sure.” But the momentum is all for Trump and Biden is still dropping. He dropped 1.2 points in September while Trump gained 1.8 points. The more the Biden problems hit, the more people remember how good they had it under Trump.
Then, if you apply the basic principle that most polls seem to be skewed toward Democrats, that final number probably is more for Trump than it might show.
The data come from the October I&I/TIPP Poll of 1,308 adults was conducted online from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2 by TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, I&I’s polling partner. The analysis for this story is based 955 Americans who voted in 2020 and revealed their 2020 vote. The margin of error for the analysis is +/-3.3 percentage points.
This poll is consistent with other polls showing Biden’s approval cratering. Gallup had him suffering the biggest drop in favorability of anyone in office since World War II. The RCP average favorability has dropped across ten polls from 54.9% to 42.3%. A Quinnipiac poll had him at only 37% saying they approved while 52% disapproved, showing him at his lowest number and deeply underwater. As we reported again this morning, he’s still sliding with independents and Hispanics, and now Democrats, as well.
Will the slide continue? Joe Biden keeps showing there’s always another low he can hit.