There were a few stories came out on Sunday with good news for President Donald Trump.
First, there was further confirmation from a Morning Consult poll of what we previously reported – that Joe Biden got no real bump from the Democratic Convention, as a candidate might normally get. While they still had Biden leading, there was no real increase in his lead.
In fact, as we observed, Trump was the one who seemed to get the bump from the Democratic Convention which is not hard to understand given the radical nature of a lot of it.
But additionally, there were signs that the independents and swing voters were going toward Trump.
A CBS Poll, while finding that Biden was leading by ten, showed that independents were favoring Trump by ten. Before the DNC, they had been favoring Trump by five, showing a possible convention bump of five points to Trump. The poll also was weighted to Democrats with the poll party split: 41.6% Dem/30.2% GOP D+11.4.
CBS News/ YouGov poll – post DNC
Trump 47% (+10)
CBS poll before DNC
Trump 45% (+5)
*CBS poll party split: 41.6% Dem/30.2% GOP D+11.4
— David Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 23, 2020
If in fact that’s so far weighted to the Democrats, that explains the Biden lead, but it’s the independents that likely tell the tale of how it’s going to come out and the reaction bump to the Democratic Convention for Trump.
Wall Street Journal/NBC News also had a poll about swing voters that suggested the same thing as the CBS poll with independents. The poll gave Trump a ten point edge wit voters who had a positive view of Trump vs. a positive view of Joe Biden.
“These voters as a group have characteristics that suggest they are open to Mr. Trump and his party,” the Journal reported Sunday. “Some 22% have a positive image of Mr. Trump, while only 11% have a positive image of Mr. Biden, the July poll found.
“They prefer a candidate who will confront the Washington establishment, a hallmark of Mr. Trump’s pitch to voters, over one who makes an appeal based on competence and compassion, key themes during the Democratic convention. In addition, these voters want Republicans to lead the next Congress rather than Democrats, 42% to 25%.”
More Hispanic voters said they would vote for Trump than voted for him in 2016, 31% to 28%.
On the most important issue always, the economy, Trump also had the edge there, with Trump holding a 10 point lead for handling of the economy over Biden, 48% to 38%. That’s the top issue for most people in voting.
Trump also had a big lead with white voters who are 70% of the electorate.
So it’s not hard to see a lot of positive signs starting to come up for Trump. Plus one might also have to factor in the “hidden Trump vote.” But it’s good momentum to have going into the Republican convention.