The Republicans are favored in the race to replace Jeff Flake in the Senate, but three Arizona Republicans are jockeying to be the nominee. Can the Establishment whip the Donald Trump faction?

U.S. Rep. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., waves from a T-6 WW2 airplane as she leaves for Phoenix, Friday, Jan. 12, 2018, in Tucson, Ariz. McSally announced Friday that she is running for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Republican Jeff Flake. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)

Magellan Strategies polled Arizona Republicans. I said back in January that Kelli Ward had lost the primary when Joe Arpaio entered, and nothing seems to have changed.

Martha McSally has a comfortable ten point lead with 36%. Trump faction candidates Arpaio and Ward are virtually tied at 26% and 25%. What this tells us is that if Arpaio had not entered after the Trump pardon, then it would be a much tighter race between McSally and Ward.

But Trump’s pardon may be his undoing, and Arizona might not send one of his own to replace Jeff Flake after all!