Just two weeks to go until the election. Early voting is underway, so whoever’s ahead now is beginning to lock in that advantage.
Last week, Trump had caught up a tiny bit. But sadly for his party, his momentum is all gone.
The Arizona Republic had never endorsed a Democrat for President since its founding in 1890 but the paper went with Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Further in 60 years, the state’s only gone for the Democrat once, in 1996. It’s a pretty safe state for the Republican party. But Donald Trump has now lost that state in the poll averages.
On top of that, if you look at the toss-ups map, Texas is now a toss-up. That’s dangerous territory, as Texas is the biggest Republican state. If Trump were to lose Texas’s 38 electoral votes, then the election night ends instantly.
Once again, Trump has to sweep the electoral battleground. Clinton has 262 electoral votes pretty much in the bag. She just has to find 8 more. If she wins any of: Arizona, Texas, Minnesota, Ohio, North Carolina, Georgia, or Florida, then she wins outright. Further, taking Iowa plus Nevada would do the trick. So of all of those states, Trump must sweep all but Iowa or Nevada. That’s a tall order. It’s mathematically improbable.
Without rapid changes, the only way Trump wins this, is if all the polls are wrong.
And Sean Trende argues this situation is unlike the Brexit polling. There, he says, the polling was even, but analysts simply refused to believe it. Here, the polling is not even. We have national and state polling that shows Clinton ahead.
Having to hope all the polls are wrong is not a pleasant way to finish the election. Donald Trump is simply a huge underdog. I think 538 is a little generous giving Trump even a 14% chance to win. The last time the polls were as wrong as Trump needs them to be, President Truman held up the Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper headline.