More Quinnipiac contrarianism in Florida


Tired of Florida yet? Too bad! Just about every public pollster is hitting the state comprehensively, so like a hanging chad this race will stick around at least until next week. And after Quinnipiac yesterday went contrarian on the primaries, today the firm goes contrarian on the general.


I call this new poll contrarian because it effectively projects no difference in the general elections no matter how the major primaries go:

Charlie Crist (I) Marco Rubio (R) Democrat
Margin of Error is 3
39 32 Kendrick Meek 16
40 32 Jeff Greene 15

Yes, we do see a slight loss for the Democrats when Greene is the nominee, which is the direction I project, but the single point of movement is inconclusive. The apparent voter indifference to the candidates is even easier to see in the Governor’s race:

Alex Sink (D) Republican Bud Chiles (I)
Margin of Error is 3
31 Rick Scott 29 12
33 Bill McCollum 29 12

It’s odd to see the Republican and Independent drawing precisely identical support levels in two matchups like that, but it happens. It’s as though the Quinnipiac survey is causing those surveyed to treat the primary candidates (between both Republicans for Governor and both Democrats for Senate) as generic partisan candidates.


But time and again, history has shown that specific candidates matter in specific states for specific races, showing an ability to win or lose when a generic partisan candidate would do the opposite. So honestly I’m skeptical of this poll having any predictive value.

From Unlikely Voter.



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