This week’s adjustment by Cook is not that extensive, but it’s a doozy:
| Incumbent | Republican | |
| MA-06 | John Tierney | Bill Hudak |
| NJ-06 | Frank Pallone | Anna Little |
| NC-04 | David Price | BJ Lawson |
| OH-10 | Dennis Kuchinich | Peter Corrigan |
| OR-04 | Peter DeFazio | Art Robinson |
| TN-05 | Jim Cooper | David Hall |
| TX-25 | Lloyd Doggett | Donna Campbell |
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Those are all formerly-safe races that are now abruptly… not-safe. They’ve all gone from Safe Democratic to Likely Democratic, but this kind of movement is consistent with a continuing drift towards the GOP side. It would be interesting to see what the Toss-Up and Lean Republican totals would look like right now if Cook was less conservative about assigning incumbents to the latter. Also: look at some of those names. There are some heavy hitters on the Democratic side on that list, and they’re even now being told the bad news. Will a week be enough time to topple them?
I don’t know. Let’s find out.
Moe Lane (crosspost)






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