A new Indiana poll has just been released by the Republican polling firm Clout Research, and it shows a virtual tie for the top spot. The top line result is as follows:

• Donald Trump 37%
• Ted Cruz 35%
• John Kasich 16%

This poll was taken of 423 likely Republican voters and has a margin of error of +/- 4.75%.

There are some encouraging signs among the internals for Ted Cruz, however. Donald Trump is viewed unfavorably by a full 45% of likely Indiana Republican voters, including 28% who view him “very unfavorably.” Roughly 36% of Indiana voters view both Cruz and Kasich unfavorably.

In other words, Trump is already at his ceiling, and Ted Cruz is not. This means that it’s entirely possible that Cruz will close this race with as much strength as he did Wisconsin, especially if Pence endorses Cruz today, as has been rumored.

Also, this poll was conducted on April 27th, before John Kasich essentially withdrew from the state. No one really knows how that will play out in the voting, or how it will affect the top line result, but in spite of anecdotal stories of sour grapes from Kasich supporters, Donald Trump is sufficiently hated (by everyone but his own supporters) that it seems unlikely that he will pick up many Kasich votes.

Indiana is more or less one of the two remaining states that matter. Ted Cruz needs to win in order to preserve the not-Trump faction’s chances at a contested convention.