A new Maryland poll released late last night by NBC 4/Marist shows that Donald Trump is maintaining about a 10 point lead over Cruz and Kasich. This particular poll shows Trump leading with 41%, Cruz second at 29%, and Kasich third at 22%. The other recent poll (WaPo) taken in MD also shows Trump with 41%, but that one has Kasich in second with 31% followed by Cruz at 22%.
Given the way the actual voting has gone (as compared to polling) we should probably expect Trump to win the statewide allocation of 10 delegates by about 5 points. The majority of Maryland’s delegates are allocated WTA by district, with 3 delegates being awarded to the winner of each of Maryland’s 8 congressional districts. The party gets to choose 3, and there’s 1 at-large delegate.
Maryland looks like a race where Kasich can really play spoiler here and throw a lot of delegates into Trump’s camp. With a 5 point statewide lead, Trump will not sweep the districts statewide. But he will probably win a lot more than he otherwise would given that he is facing two opponents rather than one.
So here we have yet another state where John Kasich is playing Russian roulette with the fate of the country just to boost his own hopeless ambitions.