Signs are mounting that the Trump campaign realizes that they may be in serious trouble in New York. It’s almost inevitable that Trump will win New York, and it may well be the first state that he actually reaches a majority in (although that is far from certain). However, whereas the campaign had previously assumed that they would sweep all of New York’s 95 delegates, they now realize that New York’s bizarre voter registration system combined with their yet more bizarre method of selecting delegates means Cruz and Kasich might well poach anywhere from 20-40 delegates in New York on April 19th.
If that happens, the math for Trump to reach 1,237 becomes even more daunting. Accordingly, Trump has already abandoned the GOP convention this weekend as a lost cause to Ted Cruz. Now, word is coming out that Trump has also canceled a planned trip to California this week in order to return to New York and campaign. One indication of how desperate (and disorganized) the Trump campaign is at this point is that they had just announced this particular trip on Wednesday:
Donald Trump has canceled a planned visit to California this week amid mounting questions on whether he can capture the Republican presidential nomination without a contested party convention this summer in Cleveland.
Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks offered no explanation for the cancellation of Trump’s press conference Friday at his golf club in Rancho Palos Verdes.
Trump had announced the trip to California on Wednesday.
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“Mr. Trump has rescheduled his California trip and will be campaigning in New York,” Hicks said in an email Thursday morning. “He looks forward to returning to California in the weeks ahead.”
Many of the problems Trump faces in New York are more or less baked in at this point. If you aren’t already registered as a Republican (and not Conservative Party or any of the other branch parties they have there), it is too late. You can bet that the Cruz campaign, at least, has been targeting their voters and getting them to register for weeks now. Again, the natural momentum in New York means Trump is probably going to win; but he really needs a sweep or very close to it. It’s looking increasingly unlikely that he will get one.