Never before in GOP primary history has a frontrunner gone this long without cracking 50% in a single state. In fact, it’s not even close. We are now three weeks beyond Super Tuesday; by now every other Republican frontrunner since 1976 has run away with the nomination. That’s right, it took the pall of Watergate and the pardon of Nixon to generate a Republican front runner as weak as Donald Trump is right now.
If, after all this time, and after the media constantly telling us that Trump is inevitable, and after the Establishment lining up to kiss his pinky ring yesterday in DC, Trump is still opposed by over 50% of the Republican electorate in a non-Evangelical state like Arizona, that means that Trump is likely to never get above the 50% mark nationwide, and he will always be seen as the child of a fractured field full of egos who wouldn’t quit when their time was up (looking at you, John Kasich) rather than a nominee with any legitimacy.
In fact, the candidate most likely to break the 50% barrier tonight is not at all Donald Trump, but Ted Cruz. And if Ted Cruz is cracking 50% when Trump is not, then that means that the #NeverTrump phenomenon is NOT a momentary blip, but is here to stay for good.
The Republican electorate is giving every sign that they will not bow to Trump or his supporters. Now it’s just up to the NeverTrump faction to coalesce around an alternative candidate, for good.