Rubio Leading Minnesota Early

Three main wild cards remain in the evening. The first is Arkansas, which it looks like will end up as about a three way tie. The second is Minnesota, which hasn’t been polled in forever and for which we have no entrance/exit polling data due to Minnesota’s bizarre “quick caucus” system, which is more or less impossible to forecast.


The Rubio folks have been cautiously optimistic about winning these caucuses, and in early returns, they are leading with 32% of the vote, compared to 28% for Cruz and 22% for Trump. This is with about 6% of precincts reporting, but the belief of the Rubio camp has always been that Minnesota was their best chance to win tonight.

Alaska of course is still outstanding but having some familiarity with the voters of that state, I would expect that Trump will win.

So at the end of the day, the Vegas oddsmakers had Trump favored to win 9.5 out of 11 contests. Cruz has won Texas and Oklahoma, Rubio leading in Minnesota, and Arkansas is too close to call. So it looks like Trump will actually win 7 or 8 when he was expected to win 10. And yet the media will declare him an invincible advancing juggernaut.


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