It’s one thing to lose an election; it’s another to lose your identity. The Democratic Party in 2024 faced both these crises, culminating in Kamala Harris’s defeat to Donald Trump. But the real story isn’t just the loss itself—it’s the timeline. The Democrats didn’t simply wake up to a red wave on election night. They saw it coming, months—if not years—before the polls closed. The warning signs were blaring, yet their response was tepid, constrained by internal contradictions and a miscalculation of their own base’s discontent.

For decades, Democrats relied on their coalition of diverse, working-class, and young voters to carry elections. However, in the Trump era, that coalition began to fracture. By the time Harris inherited Joe Biden’s shaky mantle, the party’s grip on its base had loosened significantly. The cracks had been forming for years, but in 2024, they split wide open. Voters who once delivered decisive Democratic victories either stayed home or, more surprisingly, voted Republican.

What makes this loss even more striking is how predictable it was. Internal Democratic polling revealed grim realities early on. Harris’s campaign never showed her leading Trump, and despite public polls briefly suggesting otherwise, her advisers never bought into the optimism. They weren’t fighting to win; they were fighting to mitigate a looming loss. This wasn’t just a bad election cycle—it was the culmination of deep-seated issues the party had long ignored.

The Early Warning Signs

From the start, Kamala Harris’s campaign was an uphill battle. Internal polling, as disclosed by her senior advisers, never showed her leading Trump. 

And she might not have had much chance of winning anyway, given the deficit she inherited from Biden when he dropped out of the race in July.

“We were hopeful. I don’t know how optimistic we were, but we thought, OK, this is tied, and if a couple things break our way [we could win],” David Plouffe, a senior adviser to the campaign, said Tuesday on the “Pod Save America” podcast in a joint interview with fellow Harris campaign alums Jen O’Malley Dillon, Quentin Fulks and Stephanie Cutter.

Plouffe said the campaign’s internal polling never had Harris ahead of Trump.

“We didn’t get the breaks we needed on Election Day,” he said. “I think it surprised people, because there was these public polls that came out in late September, early October, showing us with leads that we never saw.”

Her campaign strategy, while emphasizing loyalty to President Biden, lacked the adaptability required to confront Trump’s populist narrative. Biden’s late withdrawal left Harris to inherit an administration plagued by discontent, a struggling economy, and a pandemic hangover.

In the weeks leading to the election, optimistic public polls created a facade of Democratic competitiveness, but the party’s insiders knew better. As David Plouffe admitted, they “never saw” the leads reported by external pollsters. This wasn’t just a campaign with bad breaks—it was a party disconnected from its base.

A Base Lost to Populism

Donald Trump’s appeal to traditional Democratic voters—once unimaginable—was no fluke. Over three election cycles, Trump methodically dismantled the Democrats’ coalition, making unprecedented gains with Black, Hispanic, Asian American, and young voters. 

It has long been clear that the rise of Donald J. Trump meant the end of the Republican Party as we once knew it.

It has belatedly become clear that his rise may have meant the end of the Democratic Party as we knew it as well.

After three Trump elections, almost every traditional Democratic constituency has swung to the right. In fact, Mr. Trump has made larger gains among Black, Hispanic, Asian American and young voters in his three campaigns since 2016 than he has among white voters without a college degree, according to New York Times estimates. In each case, Mr. Trump fared better than any Republican in decades.

For instance, between 2012 and 2024, Black support for Democrats dropped by 19 points, Hispanic by 29, and Asian by 17. These shifts represent more than a bad campaign; they reflect a party out of sync with its constituents.

Why Did They Drift?

Trump’s populism co-opted the Democrats’ historical appeal as the “party of the people.” By emphasizing themes like economic nationalism and cultural authenticity, Trump resonated with voters who felt alienated by the Democrats’ focus on progressive social policies. The shift wasn’t solely about Trump, though. The Democrats’ pivot toward an anti-Trump identity alienated many traditional voters. Instead of embracing economic populism, the party became synonymous with academic language and “woke” progressivism.

The Harris Campaign’s Missteps

Kamala Harris’s inability—or unwillingness—to distinguish herself from the Biden administration exacerbated these challenges. Her campaign avoided confronting Trump’s narrative on issues like the economy, crime, and trans rights, instead playing defense. As Fulks noted, focusing on counterattacks left no room to define Harris as a candidate.

Moreover, her unwavering loyalty to Biden backfired. When pressed for differences between herself and the unpopular incumbent, Harris failed to deliver, reinforcing perceptions of stagnation rather than offering hope.

The Numbers Don’t Lie

The erosion of Democratic support wasn’t just anecdotal; it was seismic. According to data from the New York Times article referenced above, nonwhite voters without college degrees swung 37 points toward Republicans from 2012 to 2024. Among young voters aged 18–29, the Democrats’ margin shrank from +25 in 2012 to +11 in 2024. The party that once claimed a diverse coalition of working-class and young voters is now scrambling to understand its new reality.

What Lies Ahead?

The Democratic Party’s struggles in 2024 were years in the making, but they offer a stark lesson. Rebuilding will require more than refining campaign strategies; it demands a return to economic populism and a recalibration of cultural priorities. If Democrats fail to reconnect with their disenchanted base, their future as a viable political force is in question.

As the dust settles, one thing is clear: Democrats saw this coming. The question now is whether they have the courage to change course.