Joe Biden has been in Washington, D.C., for 52 years. Multiple generations have been born who have never known a time when Biden wasn't a figure in national politics. Multiple generations of Democrats have risen through the Senate in the time since he first went to Washington, D.C.
All of that is to say that Joe Biden has not been a spring chicken since before the end of the Cold War.
This is a man who, by any rational assessment of his past actions, campaigns, statements, and behaviors should never have been a contender for the presidency. The Democratic Party, at one time, had people who were younger and more talented but did not have the right ambition or the right timing to make the leap into that particular type of campaign.
He was a failed presidential contender twice before he finally got in. The first was in 1988, and the second was in 2008. In that second cycle, he dropped out and became the running mate for Barack Obama. He finally got into the White House, albeit as the No. 2 guy.
From 2008 to 2016, something extraordinary happened. Little by little, Obama's presidency took its toll on his party. He routinely made everything about himself and his own ambitions rather than doing things for the good of the party. He never worked with his party to grow their majorities, and in fact, alienated a lot of Americans with his policies. It was so bad that, by the time the 2016 election came around, the party was all but wiped out.
Every president sees his party lose hundreds of positions — it's the price a party holding the White House pays — but no president has come close to Obama. During Obama's eight years in office, the Democrats have lost more House, Senate, state legislative and governors seats than under any other president.
When Obama took office, there were 60 Democratic senators; now there are 46. The number of House seats held by Democrats has shrunk from 257 to 188.
There are now nine fewer Democratic governors than in 2009. Democrats currently hold fewer elected offices nationwide than at any time since the 1920s.
Obama's policies decimated Rust Belt jobs in particular. The blue collar middle class had had it with him and his team. After two devastating midterm cycles and barely squeaking by in his own reelection, Obama left office as the head of a party that had suffered more losses than at any point in history.
And, it was when he was about to leave office that he decided to look at potential successors and decide that Hillary Clinton was the best pick. He convinced Biden to stand down and endorsed Clinton. After all, imagine how great his legacy would look if he hand-picked the first female president!
Voters, angry at Obama's arrogance and his policies, voted for the most unlikely of presidential candidates, Donald J. Trump.
Since 2016, the Democratic Party has had to rebuild from scratch. The ranks were decimated and they had to work to regain offices at the state and local level before even dreaming of the presidency. And, they had some good cycles, though 2018 was fairly underwhelming compared to what it could have been (largely due to the clown show that was the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings, which angered a good many in the middle and motivated them to either stay home or vote Republican).
Then came 2020. There were several Democrats who decided to run, each of whom was as unqualified as the last. Not a single one of them could have won a nationwide race with as little experience and expertise as they had. Kamala Harris, seen as a "rising star" in the party, was obliterated before she even made it to Iowa at the hands of someone barely anyone knew, Tulsi Gabbard.
The only person who, due to a series of unfortunate events like a global pandemic and an economic meltdown as a result of it, could somehow manage to win: Joe freaking Biden. Finally, it was his time.
Using a basement campaign that hid his well-known flaws and relying on the drama surrounding Trump, Biden managed to win in 2020. Four years later, his own party is attempting to push him aside because they can't hide his well-known flaws anymore.
But it all comes down to Barack Obama.
During his time in office, Obama focused on the policy ideas of the academic elite. He focused on urban progressive ideology. He showed disdain toward the working class by insulting people who "cling" to their guns and their Bibles, and he worked to shut down their mines and factories.
His successor, Clinton, ignored the Rust Belt almost entirely during her campaign. Their focus was to bring out more urban and young voters. The Midwest, feeling ignored, soured on the Democrats.
This combination of neglect toward the blue collar workers of the Midwest cost the Democrats between 2008 and 2016, and the party as a whole suffered. Obama was not particularly interested in growing his party. Instead, he seemed to actively work to shrink it, which is what gave Democrats so few options in 2020.
Joe Biden probably would not have happened in 2020 if Obama had not encouraged him to step aside in 2016. Biden might not have beaten Trump, but he would not have lost those blue collar workers the way Clinton did. Ironically, those same Midwest voters are now the ones Democrats need to work the hardest to save, and the Republicans are out there trying to sway them while Democrats try to push out the only guy who can connect with them.
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The potential replacements for Biden can be divided into two categories.
The first category is people who can't connect with blue collar workers. Candidates like Kamala Harris, who would tell them that "The power of factories is that the American economy is built on the power of factories and the factories that power the economy do so through the power of our factories."
Candidates like Gavin Newsom, who would try to spread his gospel of California progressivism to a group of people who still believe in God, the right to do what is best for their kids, and the right to drive a cheaper and more efficient gas-powered vehicle.
The other category of replacements for Biden is Democrats who can speak to Midwesterners, but are currently running swing states. Governors like Gretchen Whitmer or Josh Shapiro. Could the Democrats risk giving up a hard-won governor's mansion just to replace their 81-year-old mistake?
Without a deeper bench and a better map, the Democrats actually have very few choices here. When Obama decimated his party by the end of 2016, he set his party up for this crisis. Even now, he's working behind the scenes to fix his mistake (whether or not he acknowledges this is on him). But, it's too little, too late.
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