As we get closer and closer to the polls closing, we are starting to see people get excited or start to panic. Republicans are acting more confident than I would’ve thought given the numbers we’ve seen, but Democrats are also acting way more pessimistic than I would expect.
So, given the fact that it’s over soon, I wanted to take a deep dive into what many of the louder voices on the left are saying, and that pessimism is evident. Are there signs Biden may lose this? Could be, given how some of them are reacting.
For example, we have a few who are already blaming the electoral college.
I can't overstate how backwards it is that the person with the most votes doesn’t determine who is president.
— Robert Reich (@RBReich) November 3, 2020
Retweet if you think we need to abolish the electoral college.
— Chip Franklin (@chipfranklin) November 3, 2020
The popular vote does not determine who wins the U.S. presidency — the Electoral College does.
— AJ+ (@ajplus) November 3, 2020
Likewise, we have Democrats who are firing off warnings about certain states Democrats were certain they would win, like Florida and Pennsylvania.
Biden campaign manager Jen O'Malley Dillon: "We continue to have multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes" says they can win 270 even without PA and FL
— Charlotte Alter (@CharlotteAlter) November 3, 2020
And sitting Congressmen are threatening the USPS postmaster just in case.
Dear @USPS Postmaster General DeJoy: A reminder that it is a felony to intentionally slow the mail to affect a federal election. @RepJeffries and I previously requested the @FBI to investigate your actions and that of the USPS Board of Governors. We are watching. https://t.co/iuKAbfcbGn
— Ted Lieu (@tedlieu) November 3, 2020
And Keith Olbermann is surprisingly still Keith Olbermann.
TRUMP'S PLANNED COUP-BY-TV: If he has the briefest of leads he will declare victory and force Biden to prove him wrong.
TV News MUST NOT put him on, live.
It must NOT grant him the immoral high ground.
— Keith Olbermann (@KeithOlbermann) November 3, 2020
The loudest voices are concerned. I think rightfully so. Tonight is going to be a toss-up, and that does not bode well for Democrats if you look at recent presidential history. Going all the way back to 2000, Democrats have not done well in elections that were extremely close going in, save Barack Obama’s re-election bid.
And I still think that the 2012 election is a better comparison to this election.
The 2012 election is the election that set the Republican Party on the path to Donald Trump four years later. During that election, a Republican establishment in Washington D.C. ensured that Romney would become the candidate, and they would focus on being likable moderates who could appeal to just enough conservatives while winning over swing voters. The campaign message was essentially “We don’t need the conservatives when we can get the moderates!” And then they didn’t get the moderates and the conservatives didn’t really feel the need to go out and vote.
There wasn’t much of a “Why you should pick me” message from Romney’s camp as much as there was a “Why you shouldn’t pick Obama again” message. In a few ways, Biden’s campaign is eerily similar.
The campaign message is “Don’t vote for Trump. Vote for me instead.” He is steadfastly not trying to endorse far-left ideas while also trying to wink at them and say he totally supports those ideas. His message is all about how bad Trump is, but he can’t clearly articulate what his administration can do to make things better. There is interest in Biden from the far-left in the form of an anti-Trump response, but there is nothing exciting them to go out and vote for Biden.
If that holds true, then this will be Trump’s night. But Republicans can’t get overconfident. If the Democrats are panicking, it’s worth taking a look at why, but don’t assume it means anything yet.