Back To Blue Wave? Early Exit Polling May Worry Some Republicans

CNN has released its early exit polling data, and the information they are showing is both largely expected, but still a damper on some Republican hopes.

Donald Trump’s approval rating is hovering around 40%, according to this polling data. Slightly more than that believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Most importantly, though, two-thirds of voters believe that their congressional races are largely about Trump.

Two-thirds of voters say their vote in today’s congressional election is about Donald Trump, according to early exit polls, and more say they’re showing up at the polls to express opposition than support for the President. The President’s approval rating is net negative among the nation’s voters, and more say things in the country are on the wrong track than that they are going in the right direction. Still, nearly 7 in 10 say the economy is in good shape, and those who say their personal finances are in better shape now than two years ago outnumber those who feel their finances have worsened.

That is about where I expected it to be, but that information – yes, it comes from CNN but it tracks with other polling data we’ve seen from sources you might consider more reputable – can put a bit of a damper on the hopes of some Republicans who were hedging their bets on incorrect polling data.

But there is more.

About 4 in 10 voters turning out to vote across the country choose health care as the most important problem facing the country, and more, 7 in 10, say the nation’s health care system needs major changes. About 2 in 10 each choose the economy and immigration as their top issue, and 1 in 10 say it’s gun policy.
With a historically diverse slate of candidates on ballots nationwide, about half of voters say it’s very important to them that more women are elected to public office and that more racial and ethnic minorities are elected.

This bit is interesting. Initial reaction is that healthcare being a major concern for the voters bodes ill for Republicans. However, many Republican voters are also unhappy with the state of healthcare and their party’s refusal to significantly make changes to or repeal the Affordable Care Act.

It should be noted that early exit polling is about as useful as July polling. It is the polling you won’t hear about until the states close their polls, and the polling that is discussed in green rooms at the major networks, that give the very important information.

I haven’t really held out much hope for the Republicans as far as the House is concerned. But, I will maintain as of now that I believe the Democratic “shellacking” of 2010 is not going to be repeated here. Republicans may come away tonight in a better position than they thought, but it will require them having to work more with Democrats, if this data holds up.