A 50-state Internet poll released by Survey Monkey shows the Democrats flipping the Senate by gaining five seats, giving them a 51-49 edge in the next Congress. However, there are several close contests that could affect that number.
In Illinois, it seems like it’s over for Senator Mark Kirk, who is down 14 points to Democratic challenger Tammy Duckworth. New Hampshire’s Kelly Ayotte is also in deep trouble, shown to be down 12 points to Maggie Hassan. Missouri is much closer, but still appears to be flipping Democratic as incumbent Roy Blunt is down 6 points to Jason Kander. In Pennsylvania, Pat Toomey is down by 5 to Kate McGinty, but both Missouri and Pennsylvania can still be considered contestable.
North Carolina, meanwhile, is a much closer race, with incumbent Republican Richard Burr only down by 3 points to his opponent, Deborah Ross. This race might be closer if not for Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh siphoning off 6% in this particular poll.
There is a sixth potential flip to Democrat as the Survey Monkey poll shows Marco Rubio tied with Patrick Murphy at 49-49.
The results of this poll, which can be found here, comes with the usual warning: online polling is still fairly new, so its reliability is uncertain right now. However, the results aren’t too far off from what we’re seeing in other polls, and this poll thankfully looked at a good number of likely voters from each state. The poll was conducted from October 28 to November 3.