California Governor Gavin Newsom usually loves the camera (except for that French Laundry incident) and any opportunity to brag about how wonderful he thinks things are going in California under his leadership. He must have finally gotten the message that things aren't going so well under his leadership and that maybe people aren't listening to him as much as they have in the past, because he's canceled his State of the State address that was scheduled for Monday afternoon before the legislature.

News: Gavin Newsom has postponed his State of the State address scheduled for Monday as the fate of his mental health measure from the March 5 primary ballot leads narrowly but still hangs in the balance.

— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) March 15, 2024

Politico reports that Newsom has "postponed" the address, but no new date for the speech was given.

The "mental health measure from the March 5 primary ballot" Cadelago refers to is Proposition 1, a $6.4 billion general obligation bond measure pitched to the masses as a compassionate way to solve homelessness. As Cal Matters explained:

Proposition 1 is a two-part ballot initiative. It includes a bond to build treatment facilities and permanent supportive housing for people with mental health and addiction challenges. It also proposes changes to a longstanding tax on personal incomes over $1 million, known as the Mental Health Services Act, by requiring counties to spend 30% of that revenue on housing instead of other services.

Newsom has been the face behind the $21 million Yes on Prop 1 campaign, while opponents spent almost nothing.

Prop 1 will be an absolute game changer for CA.

It will transform our mental health system, allowing us to build new facilities to serve tens of thousands of people and provide treatment where it's needed most -- helping more people get off the streets. pic.twitter.com/lJ3En712jU

— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) December 11, 2023

The measure was polling at 68 percent in December but went down to 59 percent in February. In the week before the election a Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showed the measure with only 50 percent support, which raised alarm bells in the Yes on 1 camp since many people who are undecided on a ballot measure that late in the game tend to vote no, and Newsom was sent on a "barnstorming" tour.

“Polling on this has been overwhelmingly positive, but polls don’t vote, people vote,” Newsom said Thursday during a get-out-the-vote rally in San Diego. “We’re here to get people to the polls.”

The rally with the union United Domestic Workers, Attorney General Rob Bonta and other elected Democrats was the first of four planned campaign events by Newsom leading up to Election Day on March 5. Other stops include Palm Springs, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

California is still facing a major budget deficit, and Newsom's being forced to confront Biden's border crisis since the caravans of illegal immigrants are now pouring over the border into California instead of Texas. The state's infrastructure deficits have been highlighted by massive rainstorms causing mudslides and road failures. To have to deal with the rejection of his signature project on top of all that is apparently too much for Newsom to handle publicly.

Giving the speech on Monday posed a challenge to Newsom on both a policy and a political level: Prop 1 is central to his broader agenda to make a dent in the twin crises of homelessness and housing, and its potential failure would blow a massive hole in those plans — a setback he seemingly was unprepared to address.

And make no mistake, Californians associate Newsom with Prop 1 and it is a rejection of his homelessness agenda. A man who has worked as a professional signature gatherer for ballot propositions statewide for more than a decade, speaking to voters about the issues important to them every single day, said Newsom's face in the commercials killed support:

#prop1 literally wins if Newsom doesn't become the face of the ballot measure in commercials. Kiss of death.

As of press time, Yes on Prop 1 is only leading by 17,000 votes. 

Of course, Newsom would have to defend all of the other disasters in the state were he to give the speech.

Newsom just cancelled his State of the State address. Given the train wreck he'd have to defend, I can hardly blame him.

— Kevin Kiley (@KevinKileyCA) March 15, 2024

California physician Houman Hemmati, who' s a regular on Fox News at Night, posted this parody "leaked final version" of Newsom's speech. As usual, parody is pretty close to the truth. It reads:

Ladies and Gentlemen of California,

As your somewhat bewildered Governor, I stand before you today to report on the, um, "flourishing" state of our great state, which is currently navigating through a fascinating series of adventures and, let’s say, "unexpected learning opportunities."

First off, the budget deficit - oh, what an exciting challenge! We've managed to craft a fiscal shortfall that's not just a hole, but a marvel of modern financial architecture. It’s like we aimed for the stars and hit our own foot, but fear not, for we are innovating new ways to spend money we don't have on things we're not sure we need.

Then, there’s our water saga. Who knew that rainwater could just... vanish? As we face droughts with the collective foresight of a startled goldfish, our attempts to capture and store water have been as effective as a sieve holding soup. Yet, I assure you, we’re making waves – or at least, trying to catch a few.

Wildfires and forest management, ah, an area where we've truly excelled in underachievement. Our forests are as well-managed as a toddler’s birthday party. But fear not, for we have plans. Plans that are as clear as smoke and as solid as ash.

And let's not forget the grand exodus of businesses and insurance companies. Why stay in California, the land of opportunity, when you can leave for... less fiery pastures? Our business-friendly policies are so avant-garde, even we can't understand them.

On housing, we’ve reached new heights - literally. The cost of living has soared to such celestial levels, we're considering colonizing Mars for affordable housing options. Our regulatory labyrinth makes building a house feel like a quest for the Holy Grail.

Crime has become our latest explosive growth industry, with innovative new felonies being pioneered every day. Our cities, once bustling hubs of commerce, now host open-air markets for the very latest in stolen goods, surrounded by the avant-garde architecture of tent cities.

Ah, homelessness, our most robust expansion program. Our streets are now adorned with the newest in urban camping chic, with exclusive open-air accommodations that even the most dedicated stores are relocating to avoid.

Insurance? A quaint concept we've practically reinvented, as companies sprint away faster than residents can say "premium hike." This has led to a thrilling new game of "find the insurer" for those daring enough to play.

Our healthcare system, a labyrinthine marvel, now offers an exhilarating challenge to access or navigate, providing a health quest for the modern age. Who needs appointments when you can enjoy the spontaneity of uncertainty?

And our pioneering electricity pricing strategy, where making $28,000 a year catapults you into the "newly rich" category, ready to shoulder the noble burden of ever-rising electric bills. It's our way of ensuring that light at the end of the tunnel remains just out of reach.

Then finally, drug crisis has unfolded with a certain poetic flair, transforming our parks into a mosaic of used needles—a testament to our innovative public health policies. As counties hand out needles like party favors, we embrace my wisdom that “we all need to self-medicate from time to time,” a mantra for the modern Californian spirit.

Thank you, and boy am I glad that I’m termed out! I feel horrible for the poor soul who has to take over for me after 2026! 

I wouldn't bet on this speech happening any time soon. There's a pretty good chance that he will pre-record a speech or just post a long thread on X/Twitter and call it a day.