NEW: In a memo circulated to staff and to be shared with Democratic senators later today, @JoeBiden campaign says based on its ongoing polling:
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) July 11, 2024
“…there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump. Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees…
NEW: In a memo circulated to staff and to be shared with Democratic senators later today, @JoeBiden campaign says based on its ongoing polling:
“…there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump. Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden.”
Now that's the smell of desperation. "Negative media environment"? Since when has this ever been an issue for a Democrat? The DNC has controlled said legacy media up to this point, so why the sudden change? What the American public does recognize is that this supposed negative media environment was either too stupid or too duplicitous to unmask Biden's cognitive decline, and vociferously attacked any other media who pointed it out. So, in most people's eyes, the legacy media is no more trustworthy or reliable than the Democrat Party at this point.
O'Keefe breaks down the memo further.
ALSO: The campaign all-but begs Democrats to stop the hand-wringing and op-ed writing: “Next week, Donald Trump and Republicans will hold their convention in Milwaukee, once again putting their extreme Project 2025 agenda front and center for voters. It will be a key moment, and all of us – from President Biden on down – must do our part to take advantage of the opportunity. The surest way to help Donald Trump is to spend his convention talking about our nominating process instead of the MAGA extremism that will be on stage in Milwaukee.”
Yeah, good luck with that. It's amazing that they are even still trying to run with this. Even Project 2025 has denied any association with Trump and put out a True/False post on X debunking some of the hype and hair-on-fire claims Democrats say are in this policy document.
MYTHS VS. FACTS ABOUT PROJECT 2025
— Project 2025 (@Prjct2025) July 9, 2024
We are not affiliated with former President Trump. We are a coalition of more than 110 conservative groups advocating policy and personnel recommendations.
1. End no fault divorce: FALSE
Divorce is not mentioned in our policy handbook,… https://t.co/syj1HnCxhP
While all eyes will definitely be on the RNC Convention, people will be waiting with bated breath to either hear about the VP pick or, if Trump announces before Sunday, to hear from the VP pick. People are also going to tune in to see with their own eyes the stark contrast between an ailing and failing president and an energized and magnetic former president.
Democrats will be out of the news cycle, maybe, but it won't be a good thing.
The memo acknowledges internal polling shows "some slippage" but denies there is any sea change. Donald Trump is still distasteful to most voters, it insists, and they will cast their vote for Joe Biden over him.
Campaign concedes some slippage post-debate, but “Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states.” They conclude there’s “not a sea-change in the state of the race – while some of this movement was from undecided voters to Trump, much of the movement was driven by historically Democratic constituencies moving to undecided. These voters do not like Donald Trump. In internal polling, our post-debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump’s among these voters.”
But Wednesday's New York Times/Ipsos polling has Trump up by +2 nationally and +2, +3, in key battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Arizona. The poll has Trump up +5 in Georgia and Nevada.
Whose information is more accurate? Doesn't matter. The campaign is fighting for its life, so they'll pull information from thin air if need be. Here is where the delusion really gets thick—third-party candidates will have little effect on the race.
Sure, Jan.
AND WHAT ABOUT 3RD PARTY CANDIDATES? @JoeBiden team says based on their polling, “we have seen no movement to any third party candidate since the debate. RFK Jr’s favorability specifically has collapsed and voters see him as an extreme, unviable alternative.”
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) July 11, 2024
AND WHAT ABOUT 3RD PARTY CANDIDATES? @JoeBiden team says based on their polling, “we have seen no movement to any third party candidate since the debate. RFK Jr’s favorability specifically has collapsed and voters see him as an extreme, unviable alternative.”
With Robert F. Kennedy Jr. in the mix, The New York Times/Ipsos poll has him siphoning off 9 percent of the vote from Joe Biden, not Trump. Some votes are taken from Trump, but not a significant amount to kill his lead over Biden. They don't give Jill Stein or Cornel West a mention, but just because they are small potatoes, doesn't mean that people will not vote for either of these candidates over Biden or Trump.
O'Keefe ends his analysis of the memo by pointing out that they will bring out their big guns for Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — it's all about protecting that Blue Wall.
Didn't the anointed Hillary Clinton make a similar mistake in 2016? Prioritizing her appearance in certain states while totally ignoring others? While they make mention of Arizona and Nevada, with Biden's fundraising going severely south of late, they may have to focus their finances solely on that Big 3, to the detriment of the other states in play.
ALL ABOUT THE BLUE WALL: Biden team says “we maintain multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes” but “winning the Blue Wall states - MI, WI, and PA - is the clearest pathway to that aim.”
— Ed O'Keefe (@edokeefe) July 11, 2024
They also say Sunbelt States - AZ, NV — “are not out of reach.”
ALL ABOUT THE BLUE WALL: Biden team says “we maintain multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes” but “winning the Blue Wall states - MI, WI, and PA - is the clearest pathway to that aim.” They also say Sunbelt States - AZ, NV — “are not out of reach.”
Only time will tell how this memo is received. Most Democrats are waiting on what will emerge from the RNC before making any major decisions. But the sentiment among them and many voters still seems to be that it is time for Biden to step aside. "Pass the Torch, Joe."
— paulpro (@paulprosseda) July 11, 2024
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