Democrats Are Terrified About the 2024 Election. The Numbers Will Tell You Why

AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

The 2024 presidential race continues to heat up, and Democrats are terrified. The source of their fear and frustration is recent polls showing former President Donald Trump in a statistical tie with President Joe Biden. They have every reason to be afraid, given these numbers and Biden’s apparent age issues. But it is still early in the race, and victory for either side is far from a foregone conclusion.


Let’s start with the poll numbers. Democrats seem to realize that even their politically motivated indictments and silly efforts to disqualify Trump from the ballot might not be enough to prevent Biden from being defeated in 2024.

Donald Trump is polling even with President Joe Biden in a likely 2024 rematch, sparking mixed feelings among Democrats 14 months from Election Day. Some are alarmed by the neck-and-neck race, while Biden campaign officials and other allies downplay the recent polls as meaningless this early in the cycle.

But there’s one thing Democratic strategists agree on: An insurrection scheme and a torrent of criminal charges won’t be enough to stop the former president and runaway Republican primary front-runner from returning to the White House.

“Despite awaiting trial on 91 felony counts, Trump is a coin flip away from the presidency,” Dan Pfeiffer, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, wrote. “Because of the Electoral College and our highly polarized politics, we should assume that every presidential election will depend on a number of voters smaller than the attendees at a Taylor Swift concert.”

A CNN poll released Thursday found Trump leading Biden by 1 point, 47% to 46%. A Wall Street Journal survey published Sept. 3 found them tied at 46% each. A New York Times/Siena College poll taken in late July found Biden and Trump tied at 43% apiece. The former president is currently polling stronger against Biden than he did at any point in 2020, when he trailed by as many as 10 points and never came within 3 points in the FiveThirtyEight average.


These numbers underscore the reasons why Democrats are becoming frustrated with their candidate. Trump is now polling neck and neck with President Biden even with all the legal issues the left is throwing at him. Indeed, he has become even more popular – especially among the conservative base.

To further compound the issue, even Democratic lawmakers understand that Biden’s age has become an even larger issue looming over his campaign. Worse still, the president’s apparent cognitive difficulties are constantly on display seemingly every time he gives a press conference or speech.

Senate Democrats say President Biden’s moribund poll numbers are “concerning” and “frustrating,” but they are doubtful any messaging shift by the White House will change how voters view him before the 2024 election.  

They acknowledge the 80-year-old president’s biggest problem is his age, which negatively influences how many voters view his presidency and contributes to a lack of enthusiasm for his 2024 reelection campaign.   

“You got to be concerned about those poll numbers, you just do,” Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) said. “There’s plenty of time to get them back up. Whether he can or not, I just don’t know but you got to be concerned.”

One Democratic senator who requested anonymity said voters at home expressed deep apathy about Biden’s prospective reelection during constituent meetings over the August recess.   

The senator said the polling data “reflect all the miscellaneous encounters I’m having all the time.”

“There’s just no enthusiasm,” the senator said. “It does pretty much come down to ‘Well, he’s done a pretty good job, but he’s just too old.’”


The president’s age and lack of solutions for the problems facing Americans could have already become his Achilles heel as they color people’s perceptions of his ability to perform his duties. Could these issues possibly sway voters into Trump’s camp? With the electorate apparently on the fence, this could very well happen.

It is worth noting, however, that the political tide in America can be rather fickle. Moreover, it is still early in the race. While Biden’s allies and his close personal friends in the activist media are dismissing these polls publicly, claiming they are misleading, the public still has eyes and ears and the ability to see what is happening on the ground.

Yet, it is still impossible to overlook the elephant in the room: Trump’s continued legal woes. While the effort to use the 14th Amendment to remove his name from the ballot will likely go the way of the Titanic, there remains a very real possibility that the former president could face incarceration. If this happens, it could deter his supporters, which might tip the scales in Biden’s favor. Of course, it could also have the opposite effect: Galvanizing Republican and Republican-leaning independents to throw their support behind a candidate who is clearly being targeted for political purposes.

As both parties prepare for the political donnybrook ahead, they better be aware of the challenges each will face. The coming months will be key to shaping the future of the nation’s political landscape. The question is: Which way will America go?




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