It appears that the Biden campaign knows what we all know: You can’t blindly trust polling data. Over the past few weeks, polls have shown that former Vice President Joe Biden has a considerable lead over President Donald Trump among voters. Some have asserted that Biden is leading in the double digits. But according to his campaign manager, these numbers are not quite accurate.
“Please take the fact that we are not ahead by double digits,” Jen O’Malley said Friday, according to a New York Times reporter. “Those are inflated national public polling numbers.”
A number of different polls released this week had Biden leading Trump by 11 points. A RealClearPolitics average has the former vice president leading Trump by 8.9 points.
However, it is important to note that state polls are better predictors than national surveys. The race is far closer in a number of swings states. Jen O’ Malley Dillon, Biden’s campaign manager, expressed optimism over winning states like Arizona. “I know we’re going to win Arizona,” she said. The state has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1996. Biden is currently leading Trump by four points in Arizona.
Florida, Michigan, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania are all critical states, and the polling in these states show both candidates in a dead heat. President Trump won all of these states in 2016.
According to Fox News:
“Biden is leading in Florida, which has 29 electoral votes, according to Real Clear Politics polls, by a slim 1.4 percent and just 2.7 percent in North Carolina. Pennsylvania and Michigan have slightly stronger Real Clear Politics polling numbers, with Biden leading by 5.6 percent in the Keystone state and 7.2 percent in Michigan.”
Despite the polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead, it seems that Biden’s campaign is still taking the race seriously. Just recently, Hollywood deployed a number of celebrities to swing states to try to drum up support for the former vice president. It is apparent that the campaign has not forgotten what happened in 2016, when polls and the corporate press convinced people that a Clinton victory was inevitable.
Trump might seem to be in trouble, but he is still within striking distance. Either way, it is clear that this election will be close and predictions of a landslide in either direction are wishful thinking.
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