These Poll Results Raise A Significant Question About The 2016 Election

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll out today covering the Comey firing is rather interesting, not so much in what it says about what Trump did, but rather what it says about the 2016 election and Comey’s supposed influence on the results.

From the story about the poll:

Just 29 percent of Americans say they approve of President Donald Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director James Comey, while 38 percent disapprove, according to results from a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. Another 32 percent of respondents don’t have enough to say on the matter.

Yet among those who say they have read, seen or heard “a lot” about the firing, 53 percent say they disapprove, versus 33 percent who approve.

Adverse results among those who are paying attention are not surprising, given the amount of negative coverage by the media. Trump deserves the bulk of the blame considering he handled it with the aplomb of a four-year-old getting a shot at the doctor’s office.

The significant number in the poll are the 32 percent who say they don’t know enough about the matter to have an opinion. It’s significant because it harkens back to the 2016 and the infamous James Comey “letter” at the end of October that many people believe tipped the election to Donald Trump.

Nobody can prove it’s true. People have appealed to authority by saying, “Well, Nate Silver said so!” Yes, he did. But he didn’t provide evidence either. He surmised the letter helped because he mentioned the polls tightened after the letter was released. However, it’s natural for polls to tighten in the days leading up to the election. The bottom line is, nobody could prove causation.

The Comey firing is no doubt bigger news. A week from an election, the news is much more fluid. Comey’s termination leads all coverage in the media (mainstream and alternative) this week. A third of the American people don’t know enough about the story to have an opinion.

Isn’t it possible a similar number (or even higher) didn’t pay too much attention to the Comey letter? As I wrote three weeks ago, Hillary had 680,000 fewer votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin than Barack Obama did in 2012. It just defies all common sense and logic that many people were “with her” up until the letter was released and suddenly changed their minds.

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