Despite what may be in people’s hearts, the Trump campaign is in serious trouble at the polls. We’ll get deluded with polls over the next two weeks, and while we shouldn’t put 100% faith into every poll to be accurate, it is the trend lines that should worry Trump supporters.
A new Washington Post/SurveyMonkey state battleground poll shows Hillary Clinton to be in command at the state level. That lead, along with her 7 point advantage in the RCP average (in the four-way and head to head polls), makes the debate for Donald Trump tonight, critical.
Based on the results from the 15 state surveys, along with assumptions of the likely outcomes in other states that have consistently voted for one party or the other, Clinton, the Democratic nominee, holds leads of four percentage points or more among likely voters in states that add up to 304 electoral votes.
Trump, the GOP nominee, has the advantage in states with an estimated electoral vote total of 138. Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas, which account for 96 electoral votes, remain as toss-ups. All results in the 15 state surveys are based on ballot tests that include Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
Here is a graphic of the various state polls (click for full size)
I will say, I think the Georgia poll is an outlier. Georgia is to Democrats what Pennsylvania is to Republicans. It always looks good for awhile, but at the end, Republicans will prevail in the Peach State.
Still, the small leads Trump has in states like Florida, Arizona, and Texas of all places, is not good news for him.