The Republicans look like they are doing well and headed to pick up the Senate. Polling in Arkansas, Louisiana, and elsewhere shows strong Republican support.

Ironically, the GOP may wind up still losing the Senate because of Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell in Kentucky. Another new, independent poll — this one from WHAS-TV and the Louisville Courier-Journal has 30 year incumbent Mitch McConnell four points behind Democrat challenger Allison Grimes. He polls only at 42% with only 12% undecided, has a job approval rating of only 32%, and has a personal favorability rating of only 27%.

If Mitch McConnell were not Mitch McConnell, the Senate Republican Leader would be asking him to retire. He is the weakest Republican incumbent up for re-election this year.

There is an alternative. His name is Matt Bevin. He is challenging Mitch McConnell in the Republican Primary. Bevin polls one point worse than McConnell against Allison Grimes, but there is a big catch.

According to the polling data, 37% of Kentucky voters have no opinion on him, 37% are neutral on him, 17% are unfavorable toward him, and 10% like him. Bevin is an unknown.

This race is now about Matt Bevin raising his positive name identification. If he can do that, given McConnell’s high name identification and low approval rating, Matt Bevin can win. 41% of Democrats and 62% of Independent voters disapprove of Obama. They lean Republican. They just want an alternative to Mitch McConnell.