They called Nikki Haley a whore. They called her a raghead. Now they better start practicing calling her Governor.Nikki Haley came within a percentage point or two of avoiding a runoff for the Republican nomination in South Carolina. Despite all the smears and all the foul play, she is a winner.The second place finisher, Congressman Gresham Barrett, goes into the runoff roughly 27% behind Haley.Generally, the second place finisher in a runoff wins if the margin between first and second is 5% or less. Between 5% and 10%, there is a 50-50 chance either could win. Over 10%, the first place candidate usually wins. Over 15%, the first place candidate will win barring major scandal.Nikki Haley will win. Gresham Barrett needs to weigh seriously if he wants to drag this out knowing the odds are so totally against him.This race also makes Nikki Haley the most dangerous woman in South Carolina. The old order, the old way of doing things, has been decidedly defeated. The runoff becomes the last stand — a TARP voting establishmentarian versus the outsider accountant they threw everything at.In the general election, Nikki Haley will have her work cut out for her. It won’t only be the Democrats out to get her. It will be Republicans too who cannot accept their day is over. They will hate her. They know if she gets elected she will crush them. That makes her all the more dangerous.It also makes her all the more worthy of our continued support. The runoff is in two weeks. Give what you can.
The Most Dangerous Woman
By Erick Erickson | 10:41 PM on June 08, 2010
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