Promoted from the diaries by streiff. Promotion does not imply endorsement.
Today starts a multi-part series looking at the midterm elections which will end on the Sunday before Election Day. States are presented in reverse order of importance based on a risk assessment for vulnerable incumbents (or open races) for either party. Where polling information is presented, independent pollsters are weighted more heavily than those commissioned by or on behalf of a candidate. There is one exception: when, for example, a Democratic pollster like PPP shows a Republican leader, that poll receives greater weight. Additionally, polls conducted by instate pollsters are also given greater weight. When outside party information is presented, it is to indicate issues in a particular race. For example, if Planned Parenthood is pumping money into a race, abortion is an issue. Finally, at the end of each entry is a running count- as of the conclusion of that entry- for the partisan breakdown of the House, Senate and Governors.
Governor Kay Ivey finds herself in a comfortable position and likely headed for a full term. Sporting an approval rating well north of 50%, this very red state. In fact, she will likely win by a margin in the double digits indicating that Alabama, on a statewide basis, remains reliably red and that the Doug Jones special election was a fluke. Hence, come 2020, Jones may be on the outside looking in.
As for the seven Congressional Districts, none are in danger of changing hands and currently favors the GOP 6-1. Not a single pundit nor any poll indicates that will change come January.
Arkansas finds itself in a similar situation as Alabama with a Governor’s race, no Senate race and all four GOP incumbent House members safe. If there is any House race to keep an eye on- and it would be a long shot- it is the Second where incumbent French Hill probably polls the closest to his Democratic opponent- Clarke Tucker. Even still, the only poll shows Hill up comfortably by about 9 points.
In the Governor’s race, there are two polls showing GOP incumbent Asa Hutchinson up by an average of 37 points. Additionally, his job approval is one of the best in the country.
There is not much drama out of Delaware where the GOP stands no chance of gaining a Senate or House seat. The only drama was in the Democratic Senatorial primary where Kerri Davis challenged veteran incumbent Tom Carper. Harris was vying to become the first, as one liberal outlet proudly stated, “the first person of color lesbian” to become a Senator. She lost that primary 65-35%.
US House of Representatives: 10-2 Republican
US Senate seats: 4-2 Republican
Governors: 2-1 Republican