Over the past several weeks,I have been publishing a nightly roll up of U.S. Wuhan Virus numbers and a short analysis. I’ve also published a couple more in depth articles on what the numbers mean over the mid and long term. Today is the first of our weekly U.S. Wuhan Virus reports and analysis. This report will replace the nightly reports. Tonight’s report is titled: “More Manny Math.” We’ll see why in a short bit. Here are the numbers as of 2359Z, Sunday, April 26, 2020.
Slide One shows New U.S. Infections, while its associated graphic shows the trend line over time. This week’s number of new infections reported, is 22,2393, which brings the total to 987029.
Slide Two’s shows New U.S. Fatalities and New U.S. Fatalities with New York’s numbers extracted. The graphic on the right, shows the trend lines over time. The past week we added 14,836 to the total count of American deaths, raising the total to 55,411. We continue to show Fatalities both with and without New York’s numbers, that way our Red State Readers can compare both lines and draw their own conclusions.
Slide 3’s data table contains the estimated U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality Rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) remains over 5%. The graphic to the right contains not only the estimated M/R trend line, but also the trend lines if as is currently being reported, the number of infections is significantly larger than first thought. It shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 10 or 20 other persons out there with it. These numbers will change going forward as we find better, more accurate information to use as the denominator.
For this week’s report:
M/R = 5.65%
+1 = 2.83%
+10 = 0.51%
+20 = 0.27%
Analysis: More Manny Math. Some time ago, I introduced the readers to 3 of my good friends, all of whom held or still hold positions in a multi-trillion dollar industry, where each of them kept their jobs by being right ALL the time on the numbers. This week, I wanted to feature something Manny is up to. He got called by his state’s leadership to evaluate the numbers in order to assist the Governor in deciding how soon and how much to open the state up for business. Here is a short note he sent me (and some other folks) along with a very interesting slide. From Manny…
I did something very interesting today. Sweden protected their elderly and sick people. However, they allowed everyone else to conduct business as usual. Restaurants, coffee shops, hair salons, manufacturing, and sports venues stayed as before. They have incurred very minor damage to their economy. You probably have heard from the news media how bad a mistake that was. Well, they have a population of 10 million. If we combine Dallas, Harris, and Tarrant County in Texas, they also have a population of 10 million.
Now as you all know, I don’t deal in models they have too many variables (assumptions and guesses). They are very unreliable and were very wrong when projecting this COVID19 problem. I’m an engineer and rely strictly on data. Data cannot be argued with. So, I have plotted the daily confirmed cases of Sweden, and compared it with the data from Texas (Harris, Dallas, and Tarrant counties). The results are shown on the attached first graph.
I plotted the daily death rates of all the three Texas Counties (totaled) versus Sweden and NY city (the second chart attached). I must tell you in advance that I believe that the NY city death rate is suspect, perhaps because they are classifying any death of people that tested positive for COVID as a COVID death. Some of those deaths may have causes non-related to COVID. I attached the second graph that tells the story:
So I think the results show that we have inflicted very large damage to the US economy, and our people for not much of a difference when compared to the Swedish strategic approach. They are happy and didn’t lose their freedoms. Something to ponder.
Something to ponder indeed. Over the next few weeks, we will not only examine the general data, but also look at how one state…really a single city, has driven and continues in more than one regard, to drive policy for the entirety of these United States. Stay tuned.