President Donald Trump holds a copy of a newspaper as he speaks during a coronavirus task force briefing at the White House, Sunday, April 19, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)
This is the 34th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States. As of 2359Z, the below charts reflect current U.S. Wuhan virus numbers.
Chart One’s data table shows Total Reported Infections, Total Reported Fatalities, and estimated Mortality Rate. The upper graph shows the reported number of NEW infections by date. As more test materials have made into the field and been put to good use, trend lines are becoming more clear, even if at times, counterintuitive. Today’s number of new infections reported is 28,099, which is 2,255 more than yesterday. Even given today’s slight increase, the overall curve in new infections is still moving in the right direction.
The lower graph shows new reported U.S. Fatalities. Today, we added 1,932 to the total count of American deaths, raising the total to 42,507. This was 371 more than yesterday…despite the erroneous classification procedures now promoted by the Federal government.
The second chart shows the estimated U.S. Wuhan Virus Mortality rate. The Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) remains over 5%.
This chart also contains a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 5.36%
+1 = 2.68%
+2 = 1.79%
+3 = 1.34%
Analysis: Today, we see the evidence of continued artificial tampering with the numbers, albeit more discrete than Mayor DeBlasio’s open and notorious input on the 14th of this month.
Going forward and based on new information now becoming ubiquitous, we will publish additional information so that our readers can make better-informed decisions.
After a number of conferences with my data team and a couple of phone calls with my editor, we’ve decided to try the following. Instead of attempting to develop our own algorithm based on incomplete data, we decided to go in a different direction. We’ve decided to publish our standard charts, but also insert additional trend lines as if New York weren’t being counted. In short, we are treating the Empire State as the outlier it truly is. Using April 19th numbers, New York State produced just short of 41% of new fatalities while being just shy of 6% of the U.S Population.
We could have continued with the algorithm development, but that appeared to smack too much of “modeling” and we didn’t want to go down that road. The integrity of this site is too important. This way, we’ve posted the public numbers and arranged them in a fashion where you, our readers can make your own assessment. If this doesn’t work, we’ll try something else. Failing that, we get the hammer out. I owe a hat tip to Pecos Pete who gave me the idea, although he probably got the idea from his horse, Ol’ Tim. Expect the new version for Tuesday evening’s post. For more detail, please see tomorrow’s OpEd/Public Service Announcement…will post at 0330EST.
For any of you out there who might wish to give a hand, I’d like to get my hands on an excel sheet that has the New York State numbers going back to February 29th (if possible)…specifically, I’m looking for the NEW infections and NEW fatalities. I can then go back and update the data…so New York’s true effect on our numbers can be more easily seen. I have checked the New York State website and their numbers do not agree with Worldometers — Worldometers is showing larger numbers, while New York doesn’t show Mayor DeBlasio’s 3,700 fatality bump.
The RedState Team hopes this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.
Below is the screenshot of the Worldometers site, showing the “as of” timestamp for the data in this post.
** On the first chart, I have “hidden” the daily entries from March 1-5, due to space considerations. The data is still reflected in the graphs. Here is a link to the last report that has March 1-5 table data visible, if you need it.