President Donald J. Trump, joined by Vice President Mike Pence and members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, delivers his remarks at a coronavirus (COVID-19) update briefing Thursday, March 26, 2020, in the James S. Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House. (Official White House Photo by Andrea Hanks)
This is the 11th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
IMPORTANT CAVEAT: Worldometers continues to revise its data in a major fashion well after their “as of” time of 2359Z. For the immediate future, I will report those numbers and post the graphs accordingly. As Worldometers adjusts them, I will go back and adjust the numbers in the nightly report. Technical issues preclude adjusting the graph after publication. I am looking into resolving this. More to follow.**
As of 2359 GMT (Worldometers site) March 28, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.79%.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality and continuing until today. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today shows an uptick of the M/R from yesterday’s reports. My assessment is that the M/R will continue to wobble until test materials and equipment are fully fielded and treatment regimes are also in general use.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Today’s numbers show a visible bend to the left, indicating 114 more fatalities than yesterday. It is unknown as to whether this is a harbinger of worse things to come.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.79%
+1 = 0.9%
+2 = 0.6%
+3 = 0.45%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is still showing a below 1% M/R
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.
**The below slide is a screenshot of the Worldometers site at 0001Z “as of” time.