President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing with the coronavirus task force, at the White House, Tuesday, March 17, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
This is the 5th in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
The trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities compared to total infections continues to be grounds for cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 21, 2020 the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) (calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities) was 1.25%. This number has been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update showing total reported U.S. Cases and Total U.S. Fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the steady decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today again showed a downward pitch of the M/R from previous reports. My assessment continues to be that with the exception of when the Wuhan Virus got into a Washington State Hospice facility, this M/R is more closely reflective of what the rate has been all along. This is is being driven by an increase in reported cases, likely driven by a sudden surge of test materials into the field. I expect this to continue until the supply chain for test materials is well established and fully supportive of demand from the field.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Over time what we hope to see, is that line taking a more gradual slope and eventually becoming horizontal. Over the past two days (Two days does NOT validate a trend) we have seen a definite if small shallowing of the mortality slope. Again, this is grounds for cautious optimism, but the end is nowhere in sight at this point. Yesterday had 8 fewer fatalities than Thursday. today had 3 fewer than yesterday. Cautious. Optimism.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report:
M/R = 1.25%
+1 = 0.62%
+2 = 0.42%
+3 = 0.31%
If you believe that there is a good chance that for each known person infected, there are 3 others out there who haven’t been reported, then the United States Wuhan Virus is now approaching the same CDC claimed M/R for our seasonal Flu. All of this could change in a nanosecond, but for now, once again, I am cautiously optimistic.
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.