President Donald Trump speaks during a press briefing with the coronavirus task force, in the Brady press briefing room at the White House, Monday, March 16, 2020, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)
Wuhan Virus Numbers: Nightly Update
March 18, 2020 – as of 2359GMT
This is the second in a series of nightly updates regarding Wuhan Virus numbers in these United States.
As I indicated in a previous article, the trend line in American Wuhan Virus fatalities might be grounds for some cautious optimism. As of 2359 GMT, March 18, 2020, the U.S. Mortality Rate (M/R) calculated by dividing the number of reported U.S. Infections into the number of reported U.S Fatalities was 1.62%. This number has been steadily declining since March 3, when the rate was over 7%.
Red State will continue to publish this Wuhan Virus Update that shows the total reported U.S. cases and total U.S. fatalities from the disease, along with appropriate commentary regarding any observable trends.
On the left, this first chart shows the data table, starting February 29, the date of the first reported U.S fatality. On the right, are two graphical representations of the data. The top graph shows the steady decline of the Mortality Rate. As you can see from the numbers on the left and chart on the upper right, today showed a slight flattening of the downward trend of the M/R. Having said that, one day — or even two — does not make a trend.
The bottom graph shows the total U.S Fatalities. Over time what we hope to see is that line take a more gradual slope and eventually become horizontal. As with the above chart, we had hoped to see some indication of flattening. Early reports today indicated that possibility, but late-arriving reports shoved the slope back towards vertical.
This chart is a “What If” graphic. It represents the M/R for reported infections. It also shows the M/R if we assume for each reported case of Wuhan Virus, there are 1, 2 or 3 other persons out there with it. For today’s report
M/R = 1.62%
+1 = 0.81%
+2 = 0.54%
+3 = 0.41%
We hope this is of some value. Whether it is or isn’t, please let me know in the comments.
Prayers for all the folks on the front lines of this effort who are putting themselves at risk on our behalf.