538 Election Model Predicts Brown Win

The election is tomorrow today, and we should not (see comments below) in the words of earlgrey, “get ahead of ourselves.” Everyone in Massachusetts — GO VOTE!


Having said that, this may be of interest:

Via Drudge, from RealClearPolitics: Polls are overwhelmingly predicting a Brown win.

The FiveThirtyEight model of predicting Senate races:

“which correctly predicted the outcome of all 35 Senate races in 2008, now regards Republican Scott Brown as a 74 percent favorite to win the Senate seat in Massachusetts on the basis of new polling from ARG, Research 2000 and InsiderAdvantage which show worsening numbers for Brown’s opponent, Martha Coakley.”

But, via The Corner, Speaker Pelosi insists on the health-care-cram-down (with video):

“She went on to say that Brown has said he want to go back to the drawing board on health care. Not in my House, Madame Speaker said.

“There is no back to the drawing board,” Pelosi said. “The Republicans in Congress have said we will kill health care reform. They are the handmaidens of the insurance company.”

Let’s remove all doubt, we will have health care — one way or another,” Pelosi said. “Back to the drawing board means a great big zero for the American people.”

Do you think she does not get it? Do you think she is listening?

Can you do this math: How does Scott Brown win = health care cram-down?

Answer: they call this an unbalanced equation.



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