Your Saturday Arizona Update: Kari Lake Still Has Path to Victory; Sen. Kelly Celebrates Senate Race Win

All eyes continue to be on Arizona, as the results of hundreds of thousands of ballots in Maricopa County have yet to be posted.

In Friday’s batch of nearly 80,000 ballots, they broke slightly in favor of Democrats, which was enough for Decision Desk HQ to determine that Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly will win re-election. There are roughly 370,000 ballots outstanding statewide, which could still be a game-changing number in some races.

These votes were presumably mixed between “late early” ballots dropped off on Election Day and some “Box 3” ballots. Many of the votes came from south Phoenix, as ABC15 Arizona’s Garrett Archer tweeted to explain the batch’s swing toward Democrats.

Curious as to where the early votes came from in this evening's Maricopa drop?

The answer is everywhere, but there was a concentration of ballots from South Phoenix. Hence the very favorable D drop. pic.twitter.com/XEHs40GqRr

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 12, 2022

Maricopa County is expected to drop another roughly 80,000 ballots from the same combination of ballot types on Saturday, according to Yvonne Wingett Sanchez at The Washington Post.

County officials expect to drop about 75,000 to 80,000 ballots later tonight. Some box 3s, then late-early drop offs.

— YvonneWingettSanchez 🏜 (@yvonnewingett) November 12, 2022

However, Archer noted that Saturday night’s drop will likely have a heavy Republican slant based on the areas the ballots are expected to come from. He tweeted that many of the ballots left in Maricopa County are coming from more conservative suburbs. This is good news for Lake and other down-ballot candidates.

I will add that the closer you get to the loop 101, The more likely you will find Republican precincts with split ticket voters. Trump did not do all that well in the "purple loop."

It was ultimately his downfall in the state.

— The AZ – abc15 – Data Guru (@Garrett_Archer) November 12, 2022

Paul Bentz of the Arizona-based polling firm Highground Inc. tweeted that Lake would need 54.2 percent of those remaining votes, and Republican Attorney General candidate Abe Hamadeh would need 52.6 percent, which are fairly attainable numbers given what’s remaining. Bentz said that Republican Secretary of State candidates Mark Finchem and Masters would need 65.9 percent and 66.7 percent, respectively, in order to win. Several media outlets have already called Finchem’s and Masters’ races for their Democratic opponents.

Following Maricopa Friday night drop: With 370k ballots left to count statewide, Masters needs 66.7% of all remaining ballots to close the gap, Lake needs 54.2%, Finchem needs 65.9%, & Hamadeh needs 52.6%.

— Paul Bentz (@prbentz) November 12, 2022

Masters put out a statement on Saturday, reassuring Arizona voters that he would concede in the event that he loses, but he wants “to make sure that every legal vote is counted.”

“If, at the end, Senator Kelly has more of them than I do, then I will congratulate him on his hard-fought victory. But votes decide, not the media; let’s count the votes,” he said.

pic.twitter.com/XVbq4WU4nj

— Blake Masters (@bgmasters) November 12, 2022

Kelly held a victory rally at Barrio Cafe in Phoenix on Saturday morning, alongside his wife, former Democrat Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords.

Sen. Mark Kelly victory rally at Barrio Cafe pic.twitter.com/YxgdcoQ8k5

— Cameron Arcand (@cameron_arcand) November 12, 2022

Meanwhile, a group of protesters gathered outside the Maricopa County Tabulation and Election Center (MCTEC) on Saturday afternoon over the length of time it’s taking to count the votes.

As they chant “count the legal votes” … inside, they’re counting the legal votes.

There are about three dozen protesters here outside the Maricopa County tabulation center for a protest that started 15 minutes ago. https://t.co/5jWKWPHwqE pic.twitter.com/gwnNbMjYmr

— Vaughn Hillyard (@VaughnHillyard) November 12, 2022

Turning Point USA’s Charlie Kirk warned people against protesting at the elections center, and Lake’s official campaign account urged people to remain “patient” and “calm.”

“In Arizona— don’t show up outside County buildings, don’t tweet or say stupid things. Don’t give them an excuse to stop counting votes. I am confident the grassroots have observers everywhere and they can’t delay much longer,” Kirk tweeted.