Dead Even


Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are locked in a dead heat in Florida in the final poll before Election Day on Tuesday.

A new and the final 2016 CBS News Battleground Tracker poll finds Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump dead even in Florida voters, with each candidate taking 45 percent of the vote:

  • Clinton – 45%
  • Trump – 45%
  • Johnson – 4%
  • Stein – 1%

According to CBS News, the new poll has shown Trump winning over voters who were unsure of who they would support in this year’s election. More than half of Florida voters — 53 percent — said they felt Clinton was part of what’s wrong with politics today, while 36 percent said they felt the same way about Trump. Over half of voters say they have gotten tired of both Clinton and Trump this year, with 57 percent and 52 percent saying they feel that way, respectively.

This CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on 1,188 interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida Nov 2-4, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percent.

The polls are all over the place. The Real Clear Politics average for Florida: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein has Hillary up by a single point. It is interesting that the trend line is downward for both Hillary and The Donald.

Trump has to win Florida and its 29 electoral votes to have any chance of winning the Electoral College. I don’t know of any pundit that says otherwise.

Florida is about even with registered Republicans and Democrats. More than 6.1 million voters had cast their ballots as of Sunday morning. Voter turnout has been slightly higher with Democrats in Florida, who had cast around 32,000 more votes than Republicans.

Charlie Mahtesian, Senior Politics Editor for Politico, writes that the key to winning Florida, and maybe the presidency is Miami-Dade County:


If you could know in advance the outcome of just one of the nation’s 3,143 counties, this is probably the one that would provide the most insight into who will win the presidential election. Donald Trump has almost no chance of winning the White House without winning Florida; he has almost no chance of winning Florida if he’s getting blown out in Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous county and home to more than a half-million Hispanic voters (more than half of them Republican).

There’s no shortage of signs that he’s struggling here. Miami-Dade was the only one of the state’s 67 counties he failed to win in the GOP primary; a recent poll of county voters pegged Clinton’s lead at 30 points. And Trump is underperforming among the traditionally Republican Cuban-American vote, 49 percent to 42 percent.

With Hispanic voting surging in Florida and evidence of Hispanic voters ticket splitting between Sen. Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton, Florida is going to be a nail biter.


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