Nine new U.S. Senate polls of likely voters all find at least some movement in the Republicans’ favor. These results suggest the GOP may be able to retain control of the Senate regardless of whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins the presidential election. These Republican senate candidates are currently outperforming Trump. There are still eight weeks until Election Day, an eternity in a presidential election, things can change a lot in that time.
Three new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls find Sen. John McCain, Sen. Johnny Isakson and Sen. Kelly Ayotte leading comfortably in their reelection campaigns.
- John McCain (R) – 57%
- Ann Kirkpatrick (D) 38%
- Real Clear Politics Average Arizona Senate – McCain vs. Kirkpatrick: McCain by 13.7
- Johnny Isakson (R) – 53%
- Jim Barksdale (D) – 38%
- Real Clear Politics Average Georgia Senate: Isakson vs. Barksdale: Isakson by 12.0
- Kelly Ayotte (R) – 52%
- Maggie Hassan (D) – 44%
- Real Clear Politics Average New Hampshire Senate – Ayotte vs. Hassan: Ayotte by 1.8
Another NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll finds Republican Joe Heck leading Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2 percent, within the polls’ margin of error, in the race to succeed retiring Democrat Harry Reid.
- Joe Heck (R)- 47%
- Catherine Cortez Masto (D) – 45%
- Real Clear Politics Average Nevada Senate – Heck vs. Cortez Masto: Heck by 1.2
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted September 6-8. The Arizona poll has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.8 percent. The Georgia and Nevada polls have a margin of error of plus-minus 3.9 percent. The New Hampshire poll has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.6 percent.
Four new Quinnipiac University polls find Sen. Richard Burr, Sen. Rob Portman, Sen. Marco Rubio and Sen. Pat Toomey ahead in their reelection campaigns:
- Marco Rubio (R) – 50%
- Patrick Murphy (D) – 43%
- Real Clear Politics Average Florida Senate – Rubio vs. Murphy: Rubio by 4.4
- Richard Burr (R) – 49%
- Deborah Ross (D) – 43%
- Real Clear Politics Average North Carolina Senate – Burr vs. Ross: Burr by 3.3
- Rob Portman (R) – 51%
- Ted Strickland (D) – 40%
- Real Clear Politics Average Ohio Senate – Portman vs. Strickland: Portman by 10.3
Sen. Pat Toomey is ahead by one point, well within the poll’s margin of error, in a very tight race with Democrat Katie McGinty.
- Pat Toomey (R) – 46%
- Katie McGinty (D) – 45%
- Real Clear Politics Average Pennsylvania Senate – Toomey vs. McGinty: McGinty by 0.2
This is the first public poll in a month that hasn’t shown McGinty leading.
The Quinnipiac polls, except for Florida, were conducted August 29 – September 7. The Florida poll was conducted August 31 to September 7. The North Carolina poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent. The Ohio and Pennsylvania polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. The margin of error for the Florida poll is plus or minus 4 percent.
- Evan Bayh (D) – 44%
- Todd Young (R) – 40%
- Real Clear Politics Average Indiana Senate – Young vs. Bayh: Bayh by 5.5
The WTHR poll was conducted September 6-8 and has a margin of error of 4 percent.