Independents Break for Hillary


A new Red Oak Strategic Google Consumer national presidential poll of likely voters finds that Independents are breaking for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. In a three-way race, Hillary leads Trump by seven points:

  • Hillary Clinton – 36.6%
  • Donald Trump – 29.6%
  • Gary Johnson – 9.8%
  • Other/Don’t Know – 23.9%

That’s a lot of undecided voters — 31.8 percent of the poll’s respondents Identified themselves as Independents. Those voters favored Hillary over Trump by nine points — 43.9 percent to 34.9 percent. The majority of Johnson’s support comes from independents — 21.1 percent.

Another interesting finding was that Johnson is supported by 8.3 percent of Obama’s and 12.6 percent of Romney’s 2012 voters.

The Red Oak Strategic poll was conducted August 3 through 9, 20126 and has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.

Trump did better with Independents in the new Bloomberg Politics national poll. When only given a choice between Trump and Clinton, 48 percent of Independents chose Clinton, while 41 percent chose Trump. Independents represented 42 percent of the Bloomberg poll’s respondents.


In a four-way race, the Bloomberg poll found Hillary with a four-point lead:

  • Hillary Clinton – 44%
  • Donald Trump – 40%
  • Gary Johnson – 9%
  • Jill Stein – 3%
  • Not Sure – 3%

The Bloomberg poll was conducted August 3 through 5, 2016 and has a margin of error of 3.6 percent.

The results from these polls suggest that Johnson draws more Independents away from Trump than Clinton.

The Real Clear Politics average for the General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein has Hillary with a 7.2 percent lead. Take all polling these days with a grain of salt.


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