The Quiet Before the Storm

AP Photo/Matt Rourke

Donald Trump is currently balanced on the edge of a knife. His trial has been filthy with controversy, and rightly so. It's pretty clear that it was a political hit job meant to make the Democrat Party's path to a 2024 victory so much easier, but it doesn't seem to be helping. As I reported on Thursday, only 42 percent of people seem to care about Trump's trial. It's hard to truly dedicate concern to it when your bills are far higher than they should be, thanks to Democrat incompetency. 

(READ: CNN Admits Democrats' Attempts to Embarrass Trump Have Fallen Flat)

Now, it's all in the hands of the jury. Time will soon tell what they come back with, but if it's "not guilty," you can bet the Democrats are going to rue the day they cooked this scheme up. 

Trump is liable to experience a surge in support that any politician could only dream of. 

Trump being put through this pile of manure and coming out the other end smelling like a rose will do several things. Firstly, it'll confirm to many Trump fans that Trump is the good guy they all thought he was. Given that Trump fans seem to run the gamut from left to right, this will act as a reinforcement to support him harder. 

(READ: The Blurred Political Line Between Donald Trump and the Republican Party)

But to everyone else, even people who hate Trump, it'll be proof that the Democrats cannot defeat him. For Americans harboring spite against the Democrats for their current economic situation, this will make him more attractive. For Democrat voters and anti-Trump Republicans, this will be a demoralizing blow that they may not recover from this election cycle. 

How can we be sure Trump will see a rise in support? 

It's not unprecedented. In fact, it's a pattern. 

Bill Clinton's impeachment proceedings saw him acquitted by the Senate, resulting in an increase in his approval rating. Back then, Americans perceived the Clinton impeachment as a partisan attack, causing Americans to rally around him. We see something pretty familiar here, but we can go back even further. 

In the 1920s and 30s, Louisiana Governor and later Senator Huey Long, a populist, was facing charges of corruption. Long wasn't deterred. He used the trial to make himself appear more like one of the people facing down the establishment, resulting in an increase in popularity and loyalty from voters. That loyalty followed him until his assassination in 1935. 

Both Clinton and Long were actually corrupt and still managed to spin the attacks on them into something positive, which is exactly what Trump's team is doing now, and it's working well. 

My prediction is that should a "not guilty" verdict come back, Trump will see a bump that will have the Biden campaign trailing by a respectable distance. The combination of this being a political attack on the chief threat to the Democrat Party, the spite for the Democrat Party over the economic situation, and the fact that this has all made Trump a sympathetic character and made him more likable will spell disaster in the polls. 

Democrats will have been hoisted by their own petard, which is par for the course for Democrats nowadays. 

But that's if we get a "not guilty" verdict or something that works in Trump's favor, i.e., a hung jury. 

If he is found guilty, then I'm not entirely sure things will be too different. Sure, Democrat and anti-Trump voters will have their morale saved, but it's not entirely certain that everyone else will be too happy about it. This could turn Trump into a martyr, which comes with even more complication. 

The only thing more dangerous than Trump to the Democrats is the idea of Trump, and if that spreads, then the problems they face are just beginning. I can imagine the RNC will have a fundraising surge as rallying cries about a corrupt establishment circulate across the country. The Republicans can add that part of their platform now includes the pursuit of true justice in a corrupt system. 

Moreover, Trump's voting base won't be demoralized. It'll be angry and even more spiteful than before, and that is a dangerous combination. Now highly motivated, the Republican voting base and the pro-Trump voters outside it may very well cause the Democrats to lose anyway. 

No matter which way this swings, the Democrats are going to take a massive blow. 


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